Comments for article

John West

Brexit to blame for everything!

My dog was sick the other day - curse you Brexit!

Q

News? Pretty obvious I'd say..!

kev

Oh dear...

Burst bubble on the horizon

married an inbred....

Surely you should be more concerned about burst tyres, Kev.

Still angry over the traffic lights they installed at Bulwer Avenue and Admiral Park?

Seriously though, do you really think that Guernsey will just start growing more tomatoes and potatoes if the finance industry failed here? That won't fill the Civil Service black hole.....

kev

Wrong kev i am afraid.

Don't give monkeys over the lights

100% Donkey

I can't believe that it's taken this long for the press to run a story on the future of financial services in this Island. Brexit was always going to cause uncertainty in this sector once Protocol 3 ceased to exist.

If the City is struggling with Passporting, what do you think the Channel Islands are going to do ????

Don Tramp

Rich people dont want to come here as we no longer have Banking Privacy Laws - I cannot see how the UK leaving the EU will affect that.

But imho on a side note the EU will never allow the UK to leave - eventually the will of the people will be brow beaten by endless Judicial challenges and further Referenda etc.

100% Donkey

IMHO the EU will fail before the UK leaves !!

Don Tramp

Not if the Germans have anything to do with it...

Q

Interesting viewpoint, Don Tramp. IMHO the UK has an over-inflated opinion on its importance in the EU, which is the primary reason why Sterling has been hit so hard since the BREXIT vote.

Since the BREXIT vote, there has been significant hostility against the UK by the other EU member countries, so my opinion is that the EU will be happy in allowing the UK to leave and that negotiations over "freedom of movement" and "single market" could get very messy indeed.

Interesting times!

donald

At our Prices - you must be joking!

An Al Forever

End of a era

Guernsey Fudge

We are all doomed. No decent tourism and growing revenues to fall back on.

Open market housing sales on the decline. Foreign workers passports and work permits under threat.

Will the last person to leave please turn off the lights.

Q

Agreed, Guernsey Fudge.

IMHO BREXIT, along with the gradual demise of the offshore markets due to international transparency rules, is going to hit the island very hard indeed over the next few years.

And with no other profitable industry to fall back on? The outlook doesn't look good!

An Al Forever

Justice 2017 bring it on Q

GM

Not sure why anyone is so negative.

Transparency rules and, more specifically, exchange of information have been known about gif several years and factored in. Business which has already left here (and you have to ask why?), has largely been replaced by better quality business. Several trust and fund businesses are thriving - there is currently a global flight to quality and Guernsey is very well placed in that regard. International private wealth still needs to be structured, administered and planned for, succession-wise. That will not change. We must just ensure that we get our share of the cake without regulating ourselves out of contention.

The offshore banking industry has been dying for the past 6/7 years. That model is finished. Nothing to do with Brexit.

The island does relatively little business with Continental Europe. We will still have the same access as a "third country". Brexit will hardly affect that.

The UK market (for Guernsey) will remain open. The UK market will contribute to attract foreign investment and wealthy new residents. That will continue to provide business for Guernsey, much as now.

The property market in the UK is not producing the same level of business for us as it did, but in US dollar terms the UK property market is very cheap at current exchange rates. The American, Arab and Far Eastern markets are now finding UK property very attractive - it's 25% cheaper in US dollar terms than a year ago.

There are many reasons to be positive about the future. There is a big world out there way beyond the EU. Guernsey businesses are going to have to stop being lazy and will need to get on planes and go out and find/win new business. The world's wealthy global citizens need and want what Guernsey has to offer.

There is far too much negativity out there. It can easily become self-fulfilling.

100% Donkey

GM

You make some valid points but Passporting is a real problem, particularly for Open Ended Funds and their local administration.

Nobody is (or should be) suggesting our Finance Industry is going to melt like snow. What many are predicting is that it will contract, and we won't need much of a contraction to see a serious effect on our economy....

GM

100% Donkey

I agree with you that some elements of the open ended funds sector are vulnerable because of the passporting situation. It is vital that we develop other sub-sectors of the fund industry to compensate.

For the last 3 or 4 decades there have been several "events" which have threatened to see the industry contract. Over the last decade around 1,500 jobs have disappeared from the banking sector, but fortunately around 1,000 new jobs have been created in compliance and regulation to minimise the impact. Can we keep finding new replacement jobs? Somehow, we simply must.