A strange feeling of emptiness
IT IS the morning after the morning after the night before. And for political obsessives who have been engrossed in the general election campaign as it unravelled over the past month, there is a strange emptiness.
IT IS the morning after the morning after the night before. And for political obsessives who have been engrossed in the general election campaign as it unravelled over the past month, there is a strange emptiness.
Until now, we had been bombarded with minute-by-minute information, enough to satisfy the most insatiable appetite.
By yesterday, there were just snippets as the parties met behind closed doors, having made their initial pitches to each other in an attempt to form alliances to give themselves a majority.
By today, a deal may have been struck to keep the markets calm when they open – or we may have to wait until Wednesday for progress, according to some reports.
A vacuum, then when before there was a dizzying array of information if you wanted it.
Through the three leaders' debates you could watch the ITV worm online showing how a select group of undecided voters were reacting to what was being said or, on the Guardian website, register instant approval or disapproval – although much less scientific given the natural political bias of that newspaper and its readers.
There were instant reactions on blogs, people tweeting into the night, or the somewhat bombastic coverage of the spin room on Sky News, where you could watch as the parties' big hitters just argued with each other.
This election appears to have come too early for it to have been the internet election – the time of social media will come – but at the moment it is the niche preserve of political junkies and the young.
It could fairly be called the TV election given the impact of the three leaders' debates – certainly the media became obsessed with the influence of them. But then the media is often obsessed by its own influence.
The failure of the Lib Dems to turn strong showings in these debates into votes on the day has been one of the narratives of 2010 and something for the strategists to think on.
Everyone is now waiting for the outcome of the courting of the Lib Dems.
Could they form what those on the left would see as an unholy and unnatural alliance with the Conservatives? Or will they be willing to face a public backlash and the threat of being labelled a government of losers by joining a 'progressive' centre left movement with Labour, on policy alone a much more comfortable fit?
For the Lib Dems, the golden thread has always been political reform and full proportional representation – only Labour had offered them that.
The Lib Dem approach to spending cuts is much more aligned to Labour than the Conservatives – both want to ensure the financial stimulus is still in place for the next year to ensure a recovery.
The Tories would cut deep, hard and quickly and have been accused of risking a double-dip recession by doing so.
Whatever alliances are formed to create a government, there will be discontent from those within the parties involved.
For how long could David Cameron sell the idea of a Lib Dem coalition or alliance to those on the right of his party who have so far been kept placated by the thought of power if it starts going wrong?
There are already reports of anger bubbling under the surface that they did not manage to win a majority, given how wounded Labour was.
How will the left of the Lib Dems take to being in bed with a party which is so anti-European?
It could be that the UK ends up with a Conservative minority government and another election in the winter.
Although many countries in Europe have shown that coalitions can work, some argue strongly that it would be the worst possible outcome for the UK.
It is difficult to read the markets' reaction given the impact of the Greece debt crisis – there was a universal fall internationally – but the markets do not like uncertainty.
And uncertainty breeds uncertainty.
At least a weak showing by the Lib Dems means that their policies, which appear so unfriendly to Guernsey and the other Crown Dependencies, should get lost in the fog as Britain starts to focus internally.
And, thanks to a concerted effort by the chief minister and his team, the island will have close relationships with key players in a new government – whatever form it takes.
All in all, then, it could have been a worse outcome... whatever it is.
