Tale of ghost town makes a scary read
A REPORT published last week by DTZ, a market-leading real estate adviser with global reach, delivers a devastating critique on plans by the Co-op to build Leale's Yard and on research commissioned by Commerce and Employment, which supports the scheme.
A REPORT published last week by DTZ, a market-leading real estate adviser with global reach, delivers a devastating critique on plans by the Co-op to build Leale's Yard and on research commissioned by Commerce and Employment, which supports the scheme.
In essence, it says that Roger Tym and Partners' report for C&E is under-researched, short on evidence and makes wrong assumptions so it comes to wrong conclusions.
DTZ's conclusion is that going ahead with Leale's Yard as planned would have seismic consequences, strip out a third of the retail spend from St Peter Port and leave it a ghost town.
This creates some difficulties for C&E. Which of two conflicting, expert and independent reports does it rely on. Or does it engage a third set of consultants to assess which one is more likely to be correct?
What does seem clear from DTZ, which was hired by the Guernsey Retail Forum and the Guernsey Chamber of Commerce, who are interested parties, is that the Leale's Yard development envisages creating a retail floorspace only marginally smaller than exists in Town.
In other words, a second town would be created at St Sampson's and where is the trade coming from to support that? It can only migrate from Town (DTZ rubbishes the Tym theory that the Bridge development would stem internet shopping).
It also rightly questions the way the C&E report calculates that what it calls a focused Bridge development combined with a consolidated Town is the top-scoring option.
Perhaps more significantly than the Tym report and the Co-op's own submissions, DTZ says what islanders instinctively know: you can't put huge retail outlets at the Bridge with ample parking without it having an effect on Town.
What those effects are and whether the benefits of a shiny new centre on the Bridge outweigh the consequences of St Peter Port effectively closing down are debatable and subjective.
Where DTZ is spot on, however, is in recommending bringing together all interested parties into a retail strategy forum to assess this.
Leale's Yard and its ripple effect has to be an island decision.
