Voting for the least worst

IF A committee of five cannot make up its mind, you would be forgiven for asking what chance the Assembly has. If there is a golden thread that has run through the island-wide voting debate it is that no-one has come up with a solution that does not begin to unravel under closer inspection.

So the States Assembly and Constitution Committee, led by Deputy Ivan Rihoy, goes to the Assembly this week undecided as to what the answer is and sidesteps this by putting four options on the table.

Expect a messy and confusing debate, and – with members so often split down the middle on issues – one lined up for a stalemate.

And to add to the confusion, there are six amendments, including a bid by Deputy Leon Gallienne to reduce the number of deputies to 35 and by Deputy Jan Kuttelwascher to have the chief minister elected on an island-wide basis.

The committee only narrowly succeeded in getting the go-ahead to investigate the issue in the first place.

One of the options it has proposed – all deputies elected island-wide for a four-year term with elections every two for half of them – already has a massive health warning attached to it by the Home Department.

It is responsible for an electoral roll that has so often attracted the ire of candidates and the public for being out of date.

Home has significant concerns about the impact of biannual elections on its resources.

'Currently, although the work for the electoral roll is constantly ongoing, it is cyclic in nature becoming more resource intensive in the 18 months leading up to the general election,' department minister Geoff Mahy said in a letter of comment attached to Sacc's report.

'Adopting a general election on a biannual basis would effectively place the department permanently in the intensive run-up to an election and will significantly affect staff and financial resources. This is a concern intensified by the current financial position affecting the States.'

Deputy Mahy wanted assurances over resources if this option was taken up.

But what price is democracy?

Sacc has costed out the different ways of implementing island-wide voting.

There is one thing the committee members do agree on – the need for electronic counting at around £25,000.

The report suggests that island-wide voting could mean more than 585,000 votes being cast – parishes are already struggling to declare by early morning without a six-fold increase in the number of votes needing to be counted.

And there would need to be a manifesto pull-out in the newspaper, the committee said, which it believes the candidates should cover at up to £625 each.

With full island-wide voting every four years, assuming 90 candidates for the 45 seats, it comes in at £65,000.

Having an island-wide vote for half the House on a two-year cycle would be £130,000 every four years.

It is estimated to cost £75,000 if the election was split between selecting from a predicted 65 candidates for 35 island deputies seats and 25 for 10 parish seats.

The status quo – 45 deputies in seven districts, costs £95,000 if electronic counting is included.

Sacc's public consultation came out with no clear indication of what people wanted, apart from that the concept of island-wide voting is supported.

But would it provide the representative Assembly that people want?

Deputy Mike Hadley does not think so.

He will attempt to amend the report to introduce the single transferable vote.

With the current system, electors' votes can arguably be wasted, for example when someone achieves a large majority, and can also serve to knock out their favourite candidate.

'This situation is avoided if candidates are marked in order of preference,' said Deputy Hadley.

'In that situation the elector is voting much more effectively because the most important vote is their number one vote and then each succeeding vote, while still important is progressively less important.'

He said critics had raised problems with electing all deputies.

'One is the sheer difficulty in an elector having sufficient knowledge about 45 candidates. Therefore should the elector have 45 votes or only 10 votes? If candidates are marked in order of preference then they can choose how many votes they use.

'They simply vote one for their favourite candidate, two for their second favourite and so on until they do not want to continue because they have no opinion.'

Sacc believes STV is too complicated.

Deputy Hadley argues that from an elector's point of view it is simple

'They merely rank candidates in order of preference. The higher they rank the candidate, the more important and more

effective that vote will be. The bit of STV that is difficult to understand is the way the votes are counted because the transfer of surplus votes is rather complicated. That, however, is a problem for the returning officer and one which they can easily solve.'

Deputy Rhoderick Matthews has another option on the table – and one that would get things moving quickly.

It calls for island-wide elections next June to elect 15 deputies for a three-year term.

Current Policy Council members would be required to stand, and there would be elections in the States following the result to fill all the departmental and committee places. The chief minister would have to be an islands-wide elected deputy.

'The system provides opportunities for both change and continuity,' he said.

'The chief minister and other ministers would be accountable to the whole electorate, including Alderney, and if successful would remain as deputies for two years following the elections in 2012. The elections in 2012 could continue to be held based on the seven electoral districts, but the number of deputies to be elected would be reduced as appropriate.'

Islands-wide and district-based elections would take place alternately every two years meaning that there would probably not be so many new deputies as occurs under the present four-year basis.

He argues it provides the opportunity to change the composition of departments and committees on a two-year cycle.

And every island-wide candidate would need 14 nominations, two from each district – to avoid 'frivolous nominations'.

In the aftermath of the UK general election much was being made of the need for a shake-up of the voting system there so people were not disenfranchised.

It led to protests, particularly directed at the Liberal Democrats – the party that has backed proportional representation.

Debate in Guernsey has been much more muted on how to get an Assembly that best represents the island.

Years of research has come up with options with a frustratingly familiar sound to them – and the arguments against will be the same as they were the last time it was debated – in fairness to Sacc they are mostly spelt out in its own report.

It has been somewhat slow progress in the four-plus years since the States decided to investigate island-wide voting again after a Deputy Rihoy amendment and plenty of options imperfect remain, including the status quo.

The States will decide this week which is the least worse option.