Recovery is there to be thrown away
PUBLICATION of the Treasury and Resources Department's latest quarterly bulletin makes encouraging reading for anyone concerned about the condition of the local economy.
PUBLICATION of the Treasury and Resources Department's latest quarterly bulletin makes encouraging reading for anyone concerned about the condition of the local economy.
As the minister says, while there is no room for complacency, the island is well positioned to address the ongoing challenges presented by the global economic turbulence.
His more optimistic note is based on improving unemployment figures, house sales picking up and personal tax collections via the ETI scheme which, he says, point to a strengthening economy.
Those same figures also appear in the September Billet providing the first annual review of the States Strategic Plan, which indicates that, as a result, the post zero-10 black hole will be £3m. less, at a whisker over £39m.
The report's section on financial and business planning also reinforces the crucial role government has in helping to fill that financial deficit without taking yet more money off taxpayers.
The quarterly bulletin notes that second quarter demonstrates strong year-on-year growth of around 4% in real terms while the Billet models an 'optimistic' financial case for dealing with the black hole, which sees it disappear by 2014 on the basis of a GDP increase of 3.5% next year.
That might be too optimistic but it indicates that the then Treasury minister Lyndon Trott's pre zero-10 mantra of bridging the gap through States restraint, some economic growth and using the contingency fund wasn't far off the mark.
How much closer would it have been had Treasury not immediately increased personal tax allowances on his election to chief minister and taken other steps that increased expenditure?
While that may be history, it is clear that the economy is remarkably resilient – an underlying strength that other jurisdictions would give their eye teeth to have. In those circumstances, it is even more incumbent on government to economise – and it demonstrably has not, as last year's 7% real terms increase in expenditure revealed.
Taxpayers and voters need to remain focused on this.
Guernsey's economy is inherently robust enough to rebound from the global mauling it has received, yet the recovery in islanders' back pockets is entirely for politicians to throw away.
