One to watch: population will be THE topic of 2011

WHO knows what tomorrow brings? Well, with 2011 now on us, it promises to be a year full of key political decisions that will shape the island in a way not experienced in 2010. Battle lines have already been drawn for some - the £80m.-plus airport runway, for example. Others are only just starting to take shape - the open market may be on its last legs but do not expect it to go quietly. Some decisions already taken will start to bite hard - people will start to notice the extra £100s that things like the waste water charge, property tax increase and passenger fee hikes will add at the same time as some services are cut. Then there's the new tax strategy, island-wide voting, revisiting the transport strategy and, hold your breath, the waste strategy. It could be a roller coaster ride and those deputies patting themselves smugly on their own backs as 2010 drew to a close may just find the heat being turned up in the kitchen. And whisper it, ever so quietly, but a general election follows. For starters it is the opening round of the airport debate. January brings the question of compulsory purchase of the Le Messurier family field and the first chance for Public Services to test political appetite for its entire project. Not all are convinced it has won the argument. Western deputy Shane Langlois said this issue was looming large. He points out that the department has been confident of victory before and fallen foul of a changing political and public climate - and that was over the incinerator. 'I think there are a lot of similarities between the airport and solid waste in PSD's attitude, that sense that it has a lot of momentum and if it keeps that going the project will go through,' said Deputy Langlois. 'What tripped up solid waste was there were a lot of people who did not agree that was the way to go. It's true to a lesser extent with the airport - from my point of view that project is still vastly over specified. 'This is £81m., virtually the same amount as Suez, and a huge number of people were against spending £80m.-plus on a waste system.' So where might PSD stumble and fall? It could be in the belief that having new safety areas as long as at major UK airports is not really necessary, that EMAS is an option, or that a planning inquiry is needed before the work goes ahead, possibly the rumours that local contractors will miss out. Not impossible hurdles to over-come, but difficult enough without having the baggage linked to the department's record. This is a project that has got the department's minister, Bernard Flouquet, on edge if the fact he was sending defensive emails off to deputies on Christmas Eve is anything to go by. Deputy Roger Domaille agreed with Deputy Langlois that the zero-10 replacement would be key - and they would, really, given that they both sit on Treasury and Resources. He added that population would be a difficult one. 'Whichever way you take, population impacts on everything, from the traffic strategy, the airport, number of schools, old age... So I think population is a very big nettle to grasp,' he said. Another to mention the tax strategy was Deputy Barry Brehaut - who agreed with Treasury minister Charles Parkinson's stance that the island will face tough scrutiny from the outside world over it. 'I also hope that HSSD has gained the confidence of States members and the general public with its 2020 strategy. There are enormous challenges ahead, there will no doubt be tension and anxiety when things that we have all taken as a given are reappraised,' he said. 'As chair of Scrutiny I have given a commitment to making the process of scrutiny as open as possible, so in 2011 meetings will be open to the press, which will be a significant step in making the work of government more transparent.' So the committee follows in the footsteps on Public Services and the States Assembly and Constitution Committee in opening that particular door a crack. While zero-10 is clearly vital, it may just prove more of a stumbling block for Jersey than it does locally with the UK stance on the need for change clear. It has the makings of a vote of no confidence or resignation issue over the water if Europe and the UK hold firm. If anything, the biggest issue must surely be the one that has been discussed in secret in recent months. Deputies have been briefed behind closed doors on the options for a new population management regime - including the belief that the open market must end in its current form. That those behind the work are spending so much time trying to bring everyone along with them is a indication in itself what a hot topic it will be. That ball is only just beginning to roll.