Looking at the bigger picture of group's population vision

BY THE end of this year, Guernsey should have a clear direction for a new population management regime. Should - because there is a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then, not least the stasis that a looming general election always brings. The Policy Council's Population Policy Group has launched its vision - well, most of it, anyway - and has left the ball in the court of the public, business and other States members to say what they think. It has outlined a regime based around residence and employment permits - this seems pretty much set in stone - and the argument rests around who they should apply to and different questions about time: How long do you have to live here to gain the right to stay permanently? How long should you be away for before you lose the right to return? How long should employment permits be issued for? Just about everyone will have a personal tale to back their case. The difficulty for the policy makers is to create an environment where people look at the bigger picture. This is because everything falls from population - what services the island needs to and can afford to provide, what type of society we are, how many houses need to be built and so on. The group is keen to keep attention on the bigger picture but, inevitably, debate has already been framed into smaller compartments. Some of this is the group's own fault, for the one big failing of the consultation document is its inability to pull the golden thread of its management mechanisms through to what is currently known as the open market. It says it wants to know what the public think - without giving them the full picture of what the implications for any options are. At the moment, anything is possible. Yes, it lays out arguments that say that it does not matter what accommodation you live in, you still have an impact - a clear suggestion that there should be some sort of control in the sector. And it tries to shoot down an argument already coming out that because the number of open-market properties is limited, this itself provides a control. The high number of unrelated adults living in the same properties shows that there is only limited control. There are 1,701 properties on the open market accommodating around nine per cent of the population, some 5,560 people. It would surely be a deficient population regime that would turn a blind eye to this number of people. A gut reaction to the figures exposed on the open market is that the sector is not doing what so many thought it did. There are no real States policies on the open market, short of a few paragraphs here and there in other reports, so it is no wonder the sector has evolved into something of a mongrel. It does provide a mechanism for wealthy individuals and entrepreneurs to come to the island, but it has also provided a route for young professional adults to stay and for lower-paid seasonal workers to remain in the island. All this adds to the mean earnings being less than for Guernsey's workforce as a whole - and who would have guessed that before the consultation document was released? The group asks questions which could lead to a very different open market in the future, or no change at all - but what estate agents and those living in the sector want, quite rightly, is more clarity about what direction will be taken. Elsewhere, there are other contentious issues. How publicly acceptable is gaining the right to live in Guernsey on a permanent basis after seven years going to prove? In this instance, European law has moved quicker than the States and actually there is very little room for manoeuvre because of it. How will the 'one-four-seven' employment permits idea sit? One year for seasonal workers, four for posts like nurses and teachers, seven for surgeons et al. So often you hear about the recruitment difficulties for nurses, the trend for those on five-year licences to move on after three - is there a solution within the new population management regime for this? You can safely assume that not even the five politicians who sit on the PPG are unanimous on every aspect of the proposals in the consultation document. It is an indication of a long road ahead. Questions are also being asked about how well the consultation process based around a 200-page report will work - who is more likely to engage, the man on the street or self-interest pressure groups? No word yet on a public meeting either. And even if the States does agree to a new regime come the end of the year, the wait does not end there. New primary legislation will have to be drafted and approved locally and, importantly, in the UK. Interim measures will also need to be agreed for the transitionary period. It is a legislative process that could take a couple of years, even if it is prioritised, and could leave it open for the next States to change course again.