Education: we may miss 2018 budget by £3.8m.

Deputy Matt Fallaize said ESC’s current spending patterns were unsustainable and could only be solved through long-term transformation.

‘In 2017, the previous committee’s expenditure exceeded its budget by nearly £2.2m. This variance was lower than it would have been without a handful of in-year savings which cannot be repeated,’ he said.

‘The cash limit set for 2018 is lower than it was even in 2017.

‘The difference between what the previous committee calculated was necessary simply to maintain existing levels of service and the budget which was actually set was £3.8m. Following the budget proposed in October and agreed in November last year, no additional savings measures were put in place for 2018. Consequently, expenditure is currently forecast to exceed budget by, unsurprisingly, £3.8m.

‘Opportunities for in-year savings will be taken as long as they are not detrimental to front line services and do not make it harder to realise longer-term savings.’

The committee and its new chief secretary have already taken actions which will reduce expenditure, he told the States.

‘However, such measures will have minimal impact on a budget deficit of this size.

‘The scale of the problem means that the budget is not going to be balanced by making short-term, one-off tactical savings. This was acknowledged in a statement to the States by the president of the Policy & Resources Committee three weeks ago.

‘The only credible and sustainable way forward is to accept that for the time being – in approximate terms – the present level of expenditure will be maintained while plans can be developed for the wholesale transformation of services and administration in order to reduce costs without detriment to services or outcomes.

‘The good news is that opportunities do exist to deliver such transformational change and indeed some have already been agreed.’

‘These opportunities include reform of secondary education, reform of post-16 education, incremental reductions in States’ funding of the grant-aided colleges and restructuring the office of the Committee for Education, Sport & Culture.

‘But these are substantial challenges which will take some time to yield benefits and some of them will require additional funding during the transitional phase to a more efficient and effective model.’

Any savings from operational restructuring are unlikely to be fully delivered until the next States term, he said.