A green and pleasant island? Guernsey 10 years ahead

GUERNSEY remains a very nice place to live and work – it’s not perfect, but we should all be grateful to be blessed with such a pleasant home.

No change is not a bad option.

What would I like to have Guernsey look like in 2028?

I would like to see a culture of compassionate self-reliance – those who can contribute to the economy should be encouraged to do so and others should be sensibly supported.

I would like to see an island that is proudly independent (if Brexit goes badly then perhaps fully independent). And with its own high standards of integrity in public and commercial life.

We should seek to have a public sector that is not allowed to get too large and complex, with the taxation and productivity penalties that this would bring. We are a small island and we must remember that. We cannot chase too many targets because we will always lack the depth of skills that could cover a broad list of ‘initiatives’ – penny packets rarely work and we need to select a few things and do them well.

Being small and lacking a huge civil service also means that we should try very hard to keep the rules that govern our life simple. Simple rules cost less to administer, they can be understood by the population and help make life more pleasant. Government should be friendly with a human face – not an impenetrable website. It would be good to see simplification of residence rules and the housing rules – 10 years should suffice to get this done.

We will always suffer from access issues as an island – focusing on making access as easy and painless as possible really matters.

Above all we need to remain prosperous by the efforts of the islanders and by attracting wealthy people to live here. This is primarily about a robust financial services industry and an attractive tax system.

If we have a failed financial services industry in 10 years’ time, then there would be serious depopulation. There is no alternative activity visible to replace finance.

Simply, financial services will only thrive if we have the right regulatory environment. It is so easy to get this wrong – wholesale copying of the EU rules for the next decade would simply convert us to a poorly connected shallow talent pool competing with Paris and Frankfurt and the industry would fade away. If, on the other hand, we fly the skull and crossbones at the airport and ignore international standards, the industry would fade away.

Our financial regulator is critical to the future of the island. An attractively simple yet adequately compliant regulatory environment is essential to our economic health. Let us be blessed with good regulation.

Brexit is a big unknown – good and bad things for the island could occur in a complex mix. Rapid and intelligent response to events will be required from the regulators.

We may need to consider radical ideas to maintain the financial services industry. Perhaps London and Brussels will generate quite different rulebooks for the future – in which case perhaps we might need to run two regulatory streams of financial business, a bit like Rugby League and Rugby Union.

We need good education, good health services, proper maintenance of our pretty island and good provision for the elderly. But we need finance to generate the funds to do all of these.

We want to be a friendly place. Waving cars out at junctions, being polite and helpful, (reinstating free drinks on the airline?), having a vibrant charity sector, quick transit of customs at the port – all these matter and make us a nice place to live in.

Here’s hoping.