One-metre sea rise ‘on course by 2100’

Dr Andrew Casebow was speaking as he outlined how islanders were still emitting carbon into the atmosphere in three major ways – electricity generation, electricity usage at home and transport.

All of these things contributed to rising sea levels, which could lead to major expenses to improve sea defences, particularly in low-lying areas.

‘I think that Guernsey is very fortunate as Guernsey Electricity has done a lot of the right things with the use of the cable – it has reduced the use of carbon and that has had an enormous effect on usage on the island.’

However, he said islanders should be mindful of the amount of excess energy they use at home and on transport.

‘In Guernsey, there is not too much we can do about ships and planes in and out of the island, but a big contributor that should be tackled is vehicles and following the move to electric vehicles.’

He believed Guernsey should follow the UK in their move to prevent global warming and set a road map of how the island can reduce its carbon emissions.

‘The next thing the island should tackle is homes. There are a lot of houses with poor insulation so their carbon emissions are very high.’

The IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report stated a target of a 1.5 degree rise in temperature, which Dr Casebow said was a ‘pipedream’.

‘The whole world will have to start reducing carbon emissions over the next few years and that is just not happening, 1.5 degrees is the tipping point and only half a degree warmer than the state we are in now – all the coral reefs will be wiped out and problems will occur in the rest of biodiversity worldwide.’

Local climate expert Professor Nick Day agreed with Dr Casebow that Guernsey Electricity was making promising moves for the future of Guernsey.

‘Guernsey Electricity has taken a lead with its plans for a new 100MW cable directly to France, when this is operational electricity, the electricity supply in Guernsey will be close to zero carbon emissions.’

However, many European countries, including Jersey, were more advanced in adopting measures to reduce fossil fuel use than Guernsey, he added.

‘The main thrust of Guernsey’s energy strategy over the next 10 years should be development of measures to encourage greater energy efficiency and to foster a continual movement away from fossil fuel use to electricity as the source of power, for on-island road transport and domestic, commercial and industrial heating.’

Any future energy for Guernsey had to be consistent with it meeting its obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in conformity with international commitments.

‘Therefore, Guernsey will need to reduce by well over 90% emissions due to electricity generation, on-island transport and domestic, commercial and industrial combustion by 2050 which would require the almost total elimination of fossil fuels on island for the generation of energy whether for transport, heating or industrial combustion, by 2050.’

At present the island has no intermediate targets, but it is likely that in the same way that Guernsey followed the UK for its 2050 target, Guernsey will adopt a 2030 target similar to the UK.

President of E&I Deputy Barry Brehaut said: ‘In 2017 the States of Guernsey adopted a new 20-year vision for the island – Future Guernsey – which contained the objective “to prevent and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on our environment and reduce our contribution to global climate change”.’

E&I’s policy priorities are sustainable and integrated transport, waste management and minimisation, improvement and maintenance of sea defences and updating the Islands Energy Resource Plan.

‘The more advice is heeded and adopted as a matter of general practice, the greater the impact will be even in a small community and even if the effect is only to set an example,’ said Deputy Brehaut.

‘The committee’s perspective and attention must be more strategic and longer term, but it also tried to find ways to stimulate and draw attention to the value of change through actions such as the electric bicycle subsidy, support for the refill initiative and the provision of electric vehicle charging points to name [a few].’