Selling or leasing Gatwick slots could be considered

That is one suggestion from the States’ Trading Supervisory Board, which is calling for a review of the States-owned airline’s mandate.

Aurigny currently has to maintain its existing Gatwick slots and ensure there is capacity on the route to meet the demands of the London market.

But after a drop of 14,000 passengers for the year to date on the route, when compared with the same period last year, STSB is asking for the review.

‘In undertaking such a review, a key consideration will be the island’s requirement for security of supply in the Gatwick marketplace,’ STSB president Peter Ferbrache said.

Airlines operating out of Gatwick have the right to keep using their slots the following season only if they were used for at least 80% of the time.

‘Any decision to switch services on or off has to be considered within this context and whether or not there is an appetite for Aurigny to sell or lease any of its existing slots to another carrier, if it does reduce its service frequencies there,’ Deputy Ferbrache said.

In 2018, STSB said Aurigny’s London operations were profitable, but that money was then used to offset losses on regional routes, including Manchester and Bristol.

So any cuts to London service would have an impact on the airline’s overall profitability.

Talks of a review have been sparked by the drop in passenger numbers on the Gatwick service, which the airline blames on increased competition, in particular from the Heathrow service.

The Heathrow subsidy had been spearheaded by the Economic Development Committee and its president Charles Parkinson, who was formerly head of STSB.

When it was announced that £825,000 would be invested in subsidising the Heathrow service for seven months, STSB wrote to Economic Development to ask what would happen if the trial was a success and what it could mean for the States’ aims for Aurigny.

However, Economic Development would not provide any certainty over long-term arrangements for the service, stating that it would depend on how much the route was used.

‘The higher the passenger load factors, the more likely it will be that Flybe will prioritise Guernsey as its destination of choice, should it have access to the necessary Heathrow take-off and landing slots are the initial trial period,’ Deputy Parkinson said.

STSB also noted that the Aurigny Gatwick services went on sale months before the Heathrow service was even announced, meaning it could not adjust last summer’s timetable without disrupting thousands of passengers’ advance reservations.

It faced the same challenge this autumn, when it was announced at short notice that the Heathrow route would continue.

‘In reality, the short-term rolling over of the Heathrow route arrangement every six months creates uncertainty in the marketplace, that hinders Aurigny’s ability to plan effectively,’ Deputy Ferbrache said.

He pointed out that Flybe had withdrawn its Isle of Man to Heathrow service in October, after operating it for only six months.