Positive test results due to clusters, not individual cases
THE 18 cases of Covid-19 which were confirmed at the weekend fell within expectations, according to the president of Health & Social Care.
Heidi Soulsby said that all had travel histories which included at-risk countries and none of the 31 patients in the Princess Elizabeth Hospital suffering respiratory symptoms had tested positive, meaning there was still no evidence of on-island transmission.
Using modelling from other jurisdictions, Public Health would expect about 8-15% of total infected cases to require hospital care.
Many of the individuals who tested positive had socialised together abroad, Deputy Soulsby said. ‘We also need to understand that the increase isn’t due to lots of different individual cases, but clusters,’ she said.
‘So we have 10 cases linked to four clusters and these have been picked up by Public Health and contact tracing has been undertaken from the moment they were identified on Friday throughout the weekend.’
The clusters were related to three different French ski trips and one ski trip to Germany and Austria.
A team of 14 on Saturday and 10 on Sunday had worked long hours to undertake the tracing and anyone who has had contact also has to self-isolate.
Guernsey’s testing capabilities had been hamstrung by a growing backlog of cases sent to the UK, but Gavin St Pier, chairman of the Civil Contingencies Authority, said a new testing facility had been identified and the backlog cleared recently.
‘Deputy Soulsby and I made extremely robust representations at ministerial levels to the UK government regarding the situation and thankfully a new testing centre was identified which has been working very well for us since.’
Most pending results were from tests taken at the weekend.
Despite the improvement in testing, Deputy St Pier described the lack of on-island testing as a vulnerability. ‘This gap, before we have our own facility, is a vulnerability which we are managing by greater controls than the number of positive cases justifies.
‘In other words we are being very prudent and conservative.’
Only one piece of equipment is required before on-island testing can begin. This is en route from Australia.
While she did not update the timeline for testing to come online, Dr Nicola Brink, the director of Public Health, said the machine and testing would be a game-changer.
‘It amplifies up the viral nucleic acid and allows you to then detect it so it’s using a molecular technology to detect the virus.
‘The advantage is we will be able to do quite large numbers quite quickly and we will then start real-time managing our situation.
‘We want to manage it in less than a 24-hour delay of each event.
‘It goes back to the WHO’s mantra of test, test, test. It’ll give us a much better handle on things.’
Deputy St Pier said now that the testing backlog had cleared, the next few days could be crucial.
Community transmission is inevitable, he said, but the rate of community transmission will dictate the measures put in place.
By late yesterday afternoon the States were reporting that there had been 369 tests, with 82 still awaiting results.
One thousand islanders are now in compulsory self-isolation.
