‘Coronavirus pandemic will cost island £200m’
THE financial cost of the coronavirus pandemic to the Bailiwick has been estimated at more than £200m., and record levels of unemployment are anticipated.
Analysis of States savings accounts has shown they could be wiped out.
With nearly every facet of island life affected by the lockdown, the impact on the local economy is expected to be significant.
Vice president of Policy & Resources Lyndon Trott gave the bleak forecast in the States meeting.
‘Our reserves are likely to be exhausted or close to it, and we could face unemployment levels not seen before in our islands – these are the harsh realities, and it needs to be said.
‘Those comments are based on existing economic assistance and forecasts, it is very likely that more, probably much more, will need to be done, and it is quite likely that our deficit on our revenue account will exceed £200m.
‘A States budget with such demands is at the extremities of all of our experiences.’
His warning of tough times ahead came during the debate on when to hold the next general election.
He said delaying it from June to this October would be the easy option, but it would also be an ‘abrogation of duties’ because it would require the newly-elected Assembly to balance the Budget, a task he believed would be the most complex ever considered in recent times.
‘It will need to focus on the recovery and it will need to balance economic recovery over fiscal prudence. Every ounce of experience will be needed, political experience and above all political courage,’ he said.
Strong words also came from Deputy Peter Roffey, who urged his colleagues not to underestimate the challenges ahead.
He wanted the election delayed until next year so that States members could give the emergency their ‘undivided attention’ and be in ‘top gear’ so they could avoid the crisis becoming a trigger for economic depression.
‘Let’s be frank, micro states like Guernsey are uniquely vulnerable to such a crisis, and in particular to such an economic crisis.
‘If our economy is wrecked and if job prospects are poor, we all know what happens to small island communities in that situation.
‘It becomes a downward spiral of contraction and depression and depopulation and falling property prices, leading to even fewer job prospects.’
