Testing key as IoD warned of loosening lockdown too soon

Data was key to more unlocking of restrictions amid the possibility of the current coronavirus becoming seasonal, said modelling expert Martyn Dorey, who addressed dozens of business leaders through a Guernsey Institute of Directors webinar yesterday.

‘In terms of de-risking economies, it’s all going to hang on testing rates,’ he said. ‘The key thing is phase one, phase two, etc. This is what all governments are thinking about.

‘It’s if you like on condition that you’ve got monitoring, on condition that you understand where the disease is and how it’s moving around. And then you’re safe to reduce lockdown.’

The good news was that Guernsey was in the top 10 testing jurisdictions in the world per head of population and could rise up that table further.

The island ‘couldn’t be in safer hands’, added Mr Dorey during the webinar examining Covid-19’s economic impact, under the evidence-based leadership of Civil Contingencies Authority chair Deputy Gavin St Pier and Public Health director Dr Nicola Brink.

With an eye to the future, he also said: ‘I would expect it to be seasonal once it stabilises in the population, because all coronaviruses in circulation have very strong seasonal components which peak in January.’

Mr Dorey said: ‘The start of September to January is the time where we are potentially going to take a really big second kick in the pants and we need to be on our guard.

‘I don’t think Guernsey, Jersey, Isle of Man will be comfortable having a complete release of the lockdown – not because of social distancing but because we haven’t got the testing in place to support. It’s all got to be risk-based.

‘Let people increase frequency, but it’s got to be on condition only when we have got better testing in place.

‘It’s not just about the on-island cases. We’re going to be pretty safe on the island until we’ve got completely free movement of our borders.

‘Remember the disease came in through our borders and that’s going to be the risk, I guess, at the end of the summer. Yes, there are big risks if we lift the lockdown too early.’

Policy-makers around the world were also saying: ‘We might inch backwards, we might inch forward. But it’s all monitoring and diagnosis, and seeing what’s happening with real-time evidence-based information.’

A vaccine, likely in September at the earliest, would be key to moving through a phased reduction of lockdown, which could mean business having to prepare for a ‘medium-term slog’. After that would be lifting of border restrictions and long-term preparations for pandemics, said Mr Dorey. His comments came on the same day as new guidance for businesses and workers was issued outlining who can operate from 25 April if social distancing and hygiene requirements are met – with the Director of Public Health stressing that an evidence-based approach was being taken.

‘We have always said our decisions will be based on evidence and while that has enabled us to take this step, we cannot guarantee that in the future we won’t need to tighten the restrictions again if the evidence dictates it,’ said Dr Brink.

Previously, Deputy St Pier has spoken about how the clear identification of ‘adaptive triggering’ as central to a phased exit strategy from lockdown. These triggers are being developed by Public Health and could see a full lockdown reintroduced if required. They could include for example an ICU trigger, a ward trigger, a critical staffing trigger, or a community prevalence trigger or a combination of them all.