Guernsey Press

Triggers to release lockdown detailed

THE lockdown timeline is not set in stone but depends on a number of triggers to determine whether we advance to the next phase or take a step back, according the Director of Public Health.

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(Picture by Sophie Rabey, 28242092)

Dr Nicola Brink was keen to emphasise the fluid nature of the phased lockdown exit strategy in Tuesday’s media briefing, although the triggers for easing or intensifying lockdown were only mentioned briefly.

Information published on the States’ website, gov.gg, has clarified exactly what measures Public Health and the Civil Contingencies Authority will be considering when making these decisions.

To move to phase two, there has to be stable or reducing cases of Covid-19 acquired through unexplained community transmission.

In other words, the number of cases that Public Health is unable to trace back to a known case must not increase.

While we could breeze through lockdown phases faster than predicted initially, 10 or more cases of unexplained community transmission could push us back from phase two to one.

Hospital admissions must remain stable too and there must be no new clusters of infections that pose a risk of onward transmission.

And while the CCA has praised the procurement team frequently for maintaining supplies such as the reagents used in testing, if on-island testing were to be compromised, lockdown measures would intensify.

If the above is met for four consecutive weeks from 25 April, phase three could arrive as early as 23 May.

Once the island enters phase three, the triggers that could bump it back to phase two remain largely the same, although one new condition will be taken into account.

Evidence of significant community non-compliance with Public Health requirements, including maintaining social distancing and hygiene measures.

To move to phase four, there needs to be eight consecutive weeks with no new cases of Covid-19 acquired through unexplained community transmission, no new clusters and stable hospital admissions.

Weeks in phase two with no community transmission may count toward this total.

This means the minimum time in phase three is four weeks and there is no set maximum.

To advance from phase four, the triggers remain the same and the timeline is still eight consecutive weeks with no unexplained community seeding, although this will not include weeks from phase three.

The move to Phase 6, where the Bailiwick will rejoin the global community, will probably depend on the availability of a vaccine or the performance of jurisdictions around us.