Economy doing much better than the dire predictions
GUERNSEY’S economy looks set for a positive recovery as the central forecast shows a 6.4% contraction rate, which is lower than the 9% predicted by Standard & Poor’s during the summer as a result of restrictions imposed to contain the spread of Covid-19, it was revealed at yesterday’s press conference. Growth next year is expected to be 4.8%.
Civil Contingencies Authority chairman Gavin St Pier said that the actual outcome could be better or worse than predicted.
‘By way of comparison, Jersey’s latest central forecast shows a contraction of 7.5% this year and 3% growth next year,’ he said.
‘Our current forecast for the public finances for 2020 is a Covid cost of £136m. as against an estimate of £173m. in May – that’s an improvement of £37m.’
In addition, Deputy St Pier said there had been a big drop in unemployment figures.
‘They fell by more than 100 in September to 570, which takes unemployment to 1.8% of the working population,’ he said. ‘This is very close to our pre-Covid levels.
‘I think what that tells us is what we already knew – that it isn’t a choice between public health and the economy, they’re not mutually exclusive, that if we make the right decisions and get the public health bit right and under control, which we have up to now, the economic damage is less.
‘From a health, social and economic perspective, we are as we know in a very, very good position compared to many jurisdictions and all the more so that we continue to be able to avoid non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and face masks, which further helps confidence and the economy.
‘Long may this continue.’
