Weekend cases analysis key to lockdown easing

The Civil Contingencies Authority will meet on Tuesday to decide whether the island can move to phase one on Thursday, which would see two households able to bubble and outdoor gatherings of up to five people, as well as take-away deliveries.

Twelve new cases were found on Thursday, of which only one came from an unknown community source. With recoveries, there are 287 active cases.

So far this week there have not been more than three unknown community source cases in one day. It is these type of cases that are most worrying for the CCA.

Its chairman, Deputy Peter Ferbrache, said there was no set number for how much cases needed to drop for the island to move to phase one.

‘It’s going forward that’s more the concern, about the type of numbers we get in the next few days and whether they are unknown sources or can be traced,’ he said.

Director of Public Health Dr Nicola Brink said the challenge was that while case numbers might seem high, often cases were linked.

Of Thursday’s 12 cases, five were from a single family.

‘So it really depends on the make-up of those cases,’ she said.

‘So we are looking at cases or clusters of cases that we don’t think we will be able to control by the track and trace situation.

‘So we are focusing on those and we will be analysing it over the course of the weekend and we will be looking for those type of cases, so cases of concern for us, indicating that our current outbreak isn’t controlled.’

Among the latest figures were details of another St John’s Residential Home staff member testing positive, meaning there are now two from that home.

A member of staff from Coolderry Residential Home has also tested positive. None of the residents at that home have tested positive.

Most residents of the homes have received at least one dose of vaccine and Dr Brink said that was helping to protect people from serious illness.

More than 13,000 people have now had at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, but many could now be waiting a bit longer for their second, because the CCA has increased the gap between doses of those receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine from six to 10 weeks.

Just 3,000 second doses of vaccine have been administered. Those who are already booked in for a second dose have been warned appointments could change.

Some countries have said that after receiving two doses of vaccine, people no longer needed to self-isolate if they had contact with a positive case. But that is not the case in Guernsey.

Dr Brink said detailed data on transmissibility of Covid after vaccination was not available yet.

‘The vaccination programme protects against Covid morbidity and mortality,’ she said. ‘There is some data suggesting a reduction in transmission after you’ve had the vaccine, but from our perspective we need to wait until that full data set is available before we produce any hard and fast rules.’