‘High number of cases needed for mask rules to be reintroduced’
IT WOULD take a high number of Covid cases, sustained over days, for masks to be made mandatory in Guernsey again, Civil Contingencies Authority chairman Peter Ferbrache has said.
The comment was a response as part of a series of questions put to the CCA by former Chief Minister Gavin St Pier, who wanted to better understand how the island planned to live with Covid going forward, as case numbers rise in the UK.
Deputy Ferbrache did not know how many active cases the island could expect to see.
‘In the event of an introduction of virus we would expect cases, clusters of cases and a third wave of cases, which would be expected to be concentrated in the non- or part-vaccinated groups,’ he said.
‘The number of active cases known in an outbreak is dependent on factors such as the extent to which people seek testing for symptoms, the presence of surveillance testing which can detect asymptomatic cases, and the testing strategy for contacts of cases. As such the numbers are hard to predict. The sum of non-vaccinated people in the Bailiwick is approximately 10,000, which includes all non-vaccinated children.’
More than 90% of adults in Guernsey have now received at least one dose of vaccine and more than 70% are fully vaccinated.
Deputy Ferbrache said when there were outbreaks, very few hospitalisations were expected. He warned that over-50s were at the greatest risk, but most were fully vaccinated.
‘Future positive cases are expected to be concentrated in the youngest islanders, who have the lowest risk of requiring hospitalisation when infected with Covid-19,’ he said.
Double vaccinated islanders will rarely need to isolate if contact traced. Currently there are 42 people in self-isolation as contacts of positive cases.
Deputy Ferbrache said the number of contacts varied from case to case and it was not possible to predict how many people might need to self-isolate.
He added that social distancing and face coverings might need to be reintroduced.
‘The trigger points for the possible reintroduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions are likely to include sustained high case numbers over a number of days in the presence of rapid contact tracing, or a new situation, for example the emergence of a vaccine-resistant variant,’ he said.
The CCA has repeatedly said a third lockdown was unlikely. Deputy Ferbrache said it might be needed if a new variant could cause hospitalisations in vaccinated people.
‘Another possibility could be disruption to any booster vaccination programme with waning immunity in the population coupled with high levels of virus circulation,’ he said.