House sales poised to break records this year

For the nine months to the end of September, there were 91, which excludes sales between families and companies which tend to cost less than £10.

Unusualities of Guernsey, an independent compiler of local conveyancing statistics, has been collating the figures since 2004, and the record year for open market transactions to date was 2006, which broke a century with 101.

In 2020 there were 97, when median prices were lower than this year.

The local housing market also looks to set to beat last year’s activity levels, which were the highest since 2007.

So far this year the median price for a local market house is £565,500, and £316,875 for a flat.

Andre Austin, from estate agent Swoffers, said sales this year had continued after last year’s boom.

‘This is down to a combination of factors, including a continued appetite for up or down-sizing stimulated by the experience of the first lockdown, a stable economy, cheap credit and general confidence in the market.

‘We know historically many locals have returned to live in Guernsey from the UK and other places often when they have families.

‘We found it was noticeable a number brought forward their plans to move back during the pandemic.

‘In terms of the open market, Guernsey remains an attractive relocation destination.

‘This has been bolstered by the way the island handled the pandemic, and the relatively normal way of life we had for so much of 2020 while so many other places were still in lockdown.

‘Brexit also had an impact in people’s decision-making. We’ve had a number of enquiries from people looking to move here.

‘Tax is still the overriding factor, but the fact that, during the second lockdown, people were buying unseen shows the all-round strength of the offering we have here.’

Next year’s forecast by the States’ economists is that document duty will fall back to £22m. because it is not expected that current levels of activity will be sustained.

Mr Austin agreed that a levelling off was likely.

‘We do anticipate at some point next year it’s going to cool off, with less of a frenzy.

‘It is likely that prices will stabilise and sales – without the condensing impact of lockdowns – will be more spread out.’

Jason Morgan, head of Carey Olsen’s property group in Guernsey, said the market was showing no signs of slowing down this year.

‘Even the island’s second lockdown in the early part of 2021 only reduced activity for a short while before it picked up again at pace across both the local and open markets.

‘If sales continue at their current levels it will be the sixth successive year of increased local market activity since 2015, while the healthy level of interest in the open market is particularly encouraging as it demonstrates Guernsey’s ongoing attractiveness as a relocation destination.’

The recently published Budget highlighted the housing market as particularly busy, which meant that document duty ‘far exceeded expectations’ last year and injected £8m. more than anticipated into the coffers.

A sum of £19.5m. had been forecast, but in reality it was £27.5m.