OPINION: Is wind power a viable option for Guernsey?

Background

JUST over a month ago, I wrote an article about the tax review. My message was clear, ‘I do not think we should raise taxes until every other opportunity has been explored’. I feel the same way about Guernsey’s future electricity strategy.

I thought this was a good time to publish this article because the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, kicked off in Glasgow this week. COP26 is the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference and brings countries together that signed up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Put simply, the conference will focus on climate change, what is being done to tackle it, how finance will be mobilised, and whether action can be accelerated. For example, like Guernsey, the UK has committed to becoming net zero by 2050. It has become a world leader in offshore wind power and plans to increase capacity from 10GW to 40GW by 2030, enough to power every home in the UK.

Guernsey currently imports almost all its electricity. Most of it comes through cables (interconnectors) from France via Jersey. Some electricity is produced here but even then, the fuel used to power the generators is imported. Finally, there is also a small amount of solar energy produced on-island.

The interconnectors have served Guernsey well and should continue to work for the next 40-60 years. Between them, the interconnectors provide about 60MW of electricity. For most of the year this is fine because we use less than 60MW. However, during peak times (e.g. a cold winter’s morning), electricity demand can increase to around 94MW, leaving a shortfall of about 34MW. When this happens, we need to fire up our on-island generators to provide the additional electricity required. Clearly, this is not ideal because the generators burn diesel.

To solve both these problems, the current plan is to build a new interconnector that will connect Guernsey directly to France. This will increase the amount of electricity that we can import by 100MW, which easily covers the 34MW gap and should mean that we do not need to turn on the generators. Good news.

However, a new interconnector will cost somewhere between £85m. and £100m. and that only buys the cable. We still need to buy the electricity. It also means that we are completely reliant on French electricity. So, I started to think about whether there was an alternative renewable solution.

Basic analysis

I am neither a scientist nor an expert on renewables, but when I started researching the subject, it became clear that there have been huge advances in this sector. I looked at solar, tidal and wind power but, since all I wanted to do was establish whether there might be an alternative to a new interconnector, I chose offshore wind because there are already a number of well-established offshore wind farms around the UK and Europe.

Next, I needed to find out what data was available. There is a lot – too much in fact for me to absorb properly. There are already 5,000+ grid-connected offshore wind turbines in Europe and many more in the pipeline. In fact, Europe is a major player in offshore wind power with billions of pounds being invested in 2020 alone.

In other words, this is not a new and emerging sector – the technology is proven, well established and companies want to invest in it for environmental, social and commercial reasons.

Then I came across a feasibility project that was carried out in 2015/2016, looking into the potential for a 30MW offshore wind farm in Guernsey’s waters. In summary, it came up with three scenarios together with estimated capital costs. The cost differences were due to several different factors including, but not limited to, water depth and whether the turbines would be fixed or floating. The estimated capital costs were £68.23m., £80.98m. and £108.18m. For the purposes of this article, I will use the £80.98m. estimate, simply because it sits in the middle.

In summary:

Power generated – 30MW

Number of turbines – five

Estimated capital cost – £80.98m.

I then scaled these numbers up to close the 34MW gap that Guernsey has at peak times:

Gap in electricity supply at peak times – 34MW

Number of turbines required – six

Estimated capital cost – £91.77m.

As I stated earlier, a new interconnector would cost somewhere between £85m. and £100m. and we still need to buy the electricity, whereas a new 34MW offshore wind farm costing circa £91.77m. would generate free electricity (potentially saving millions of pounds each year) for about 20-25 years.

It will require more maintenance, but we will not be so reliant on imported electricity from one country.

Clearly, this is a ‘back of a fag packet’ analysis. Professionals would need to be brought in to provide a full feasibility/cost study. However, if the numbers are in the right ballpark, I do think that we need to at least consider whether an offshore wind farm could be an alternative option to a new interconnector.

And, if a full feasibility study concluded that we should be investing in offshore wind, why stop at just 34MW? Why not scale up to 100MW? The more electricity that we can produce, the more self-sufficient we will be. For example, the UK has run auctions to lease parts of its seabed. This kind of initiative can protect valuable resources, like sea grass, that help to offset carbon emissions. It can also be used to lease carefully chosen areas that can be used for more offshore wind and/or tidal power. Initiatives like this can help to protect the environment, produce renewable energy and, potentially, deliver millions of pounds of incremental government revenue.

What if there is no wind?

The next issue to consider is what happens if there is no wind? Clearly, we cannot be in a position where the lights go out if the turbines are not producing electricity.

Well, we will still have the existing interconnectors to France so we can continue to buy electricity, as we do now, when needed. We could also look to diversify by utilising more solar or tidal power. It is not uncommon to see a combination of technologies working side by side to allow for energy generation during varying weather patterns.

Another option is batteries. I initially struggled with this concept and had visions of millions of car batteries stacked on top of each other. Then I realised how much technology has advanced here too. There are now supersized batteries that can store 100MW (enough to power 30,000 homes) or 250MW. There is even one planned that will be able to store an incredible 1,250MW of electricity.

It reminded me of the advances in data storage. In 1967, 1GB of storage cost $1m. Today it costs $0.02. To put that into perspective, my smart phone has 128GB of storage. So, my prediction is that the technology required to store electricity will also evolve quickly, leading to cheaper, more efficient batteries. This speed of innovation is even more important given the commitments made under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreements.

What might the future look like?

The world is rapidly adopting renewables to meet the planet’s future energy needs. The number of interconnectors linking different countries’ grids up to one another, so that they can buy and sell electricity to one another, is also growing.

The UK already has several interconnectors linking it to Europe and it is likely that it will need more in the future. If one of these went through Guernsey, it would deliver three benefits to the island. Firstly, we would not need a direct link of our own into France. Secondly, because we would be connected to the UK and France, we would have a choice about where we buy our electricity from until we become fully self-sufficient. And, finally, once we can produce more electricity than we need, we could sell it using the very same interconnector, creating a sustainable revenue stream for the island.

Summary

Surrounded by the sea, we can utilise our waters to generate huge amounts of electricity. If we embrace offshore wind (and tidal) power, we will simply be doing what Guernsey has always done and that is to use its greatest resource – the sea. We could even become an exporter of clean, green energy, providing a model that other small jurisdictions can follow.

To repeat, I am not a scientist or an expert on renewables. However, the idea of investing in renewables, rather than a new interconnector, does seem quite compelling. So, all I am asking for is that we look at all options before we invest in a new interconnector. What is certain is that if the recommendation is that we should be going down the renewables route, there is no shortage of green finance out there prepared to fund it. And the proposition could be even more compelling if we were to create additional scale by undertaking a joint offshore renewables project with Alderney and Jersey.