‘It’s going to get worse before it gets better’
RUSSIA’S war with Ukraine will end with Nato doing a deal with the devil, a local retired Lt-Colonel who served in war zones around the world, has predicted.
‘The Ukrainians feel they have the right on their side and the right to defend themselves, but they are facing overwhelming military odds,’ said Colin Vaudin, a Guernseyman who spent his military career serving in major conflicts including Afghanistan and Iraq.
‘On one hand, you’ve got people who probably don’t want to fight, but militarily are going to win, at great cost to the Russians, and on the other hand people who are in the right to fight and defend their homes but are probably going to lose.
‘No side wins.’
Guernsey has followed the worldwide move to adopt sanctions in an attempt to deter President Vladimir Putin, including cutting ties with various Russian banks and banning Russian planes and vessels from entering the Bailiwick’s skies or waters.
Mr Vaudin said that although the sanctions will affect Guernsey, they will hurt Russia’s economic system more.
As Russia provides much of the world’s oil, petrol prices in the island are expected to surge, he said.
‘Petrol prices are going to go up, but you have to ask whether paying 10p or so more is such a big thing compared to what those in Ukraine are going through.
'It is going to get worse before it gets better – what I would endorse is that this is a time for cool heads and stout hearts.
'It is not a time for careless rhetoric. Whether we like it or not, unless Putin is given a way out, he will just keep fighting,’ said Mr Vaudin.
He said it was possible that weapons of mass destruction could play a part in the conflict.
‘The Russian doctrine doesn’t draw the same divides between conventional warfare, tactical nuclear warfare and strategic nuclear warfare as we do.
‘They have other tools at their hands which they have shown themselves willing to use – chemical weapons.
‘Yes I think he will escalate and who knows what his inner circle would do?
'What has kept us safe for 50 years is deterrent – we have to stand firm and at some point say if you take another step further, this is what is going to happen, but don’t corner him so that he has nothing to lose.’
He said the war in Ukraine can be seen as an insurgency, meaning the risk of losing hundreds of civilian lives is far greater.
‘When you start fighting insurgency, aerial weapons and devastation of cities starts happening. He’s not fighting an army, he is fighting an entire country.’
Mr Vaudin was the States chief information officer until the end of last year.
