Covid infections 'may be 5,000' – and rising fast
A more transmissible sub-variant will continue to drive up Covid rates further, the director of Public Health has warned.
But a spring booster programme for older and vulnerable islanders is on the way.
Dr Nicola Brink said that the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron was driving the current jump in cases as it had a 20% increase in transmissibility.
She also estimated that known active cases – which stood at 2,574 as of the latest weekly statistics released on Tuesday – could be just half the total currently circulating in the island.
Active cases could rise above 3,000 within the next week, she added.
‘I think it will get higher,' she said.
'The situation is probably going to get worse over the next week but hopefully the measures that islanders put in place will start slowing the rate of infection.’
Asked about potential risk of increase in hospitalisations, she added: ‘The message is that we are in a situation, we have got a steep increase and we need to do all we can and work together as an island to slow this down.'
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She said the latest news meant it was very important for the community to work together to protect the hospital and the functioning of critical services by slowing the spread of the virus.
This included wearing face coverings in enclosed indoor spaces, businesses enabling increased home working, staying at home if unwell or with Covid, social distancing and testing.
‘I think we certainly need to be clear about the current surge in cases and we have always communicated that information in a clear and transparent way – and we need to continue to do that,’ said Dr Brink.
With the peak in Covid cases now higher than the December-January Omicron wave, she said the hospital was full and there were concerns about the ability to run the services with people becoming unwell and unable to work.
That included health and social care, critical infrastructure and education services.
Revealing new data as to why Covid cases had surged, Dr Brink said: ‘We are seeing a predominance of BA.2 – a sub-lineage of Omicron. It has about 20% increase in transmissibility. About 80% to 85% of the current samples of cases are BA.2.’
She agreed that there had been a decrease in islanders' adherence to measures to stop the spread of the virus.
‘We need to do this to protect the community and slow the spread of the virus down.’
Waning effects of vaccines, particularly in the 75 and above age group who had autumn boosters, was another factor.
‘We will be rolling out a spring booster campaign to protect the most clinically vulnerable but also the 75s and over,’ added Dr Brink.
