‘Island should show its support for Ukraine on Liberation Day’
UKRAINE is less than 1,500 miles from Guernsey – before the war you could drive there in just under three longish days.
I was planning to ride my motorbike there this summer. I say this because we aren’t a huge distance away, physically or emotionally. I say emotionally because many of us in Guernsey are looking forward to Liberation Day in a couple of weeks – parties are being planned, there will be a parade in Town, and the route of the cavalcade has been announced.
The people of Ukraine will also be looking towards 9 May but with fear and trepidation rather than in hope and excitement.
The next few weeks are likely to see a growing, more aggressive and more destructive phase of the war as Russia tries to deliver significant battlefield success before 9 May. Why is this date so important? 9 May marks not only our liberation, but Victory Day for Russia and the former Soviet Union. This marks their official end of WW2 or, as Russia knows it, the Great Patriotic War.
The reason this is different from western Europe’s VE Day is somewhat complex, but fundamentally it is because Stalin, the dictator of that time, wanted greater importance given to the Soviet role in the war and insisted on a second surrender document, meaning the war, in the east, continued for two more bloody days. Putin is focused on the 9 May for similar emotional and political reasons. He needs to demonstrate success, he needs his Victory Day. For him these considerations outweigh military reality and any thoughts about casualties or destruction caused in pursuit of this arbitrary date.
Russia has significant strategic reserves, they have been reorganising over the last couple of weeks, and after their failed initial attacks, senior officers who have been judged to have failed have been replaced. And despite western defensive weapons, the rate of expenditure of ammunition may be beginning to impact on Ukrainian ability to fight – we already see this happening in Mariupol.
The next phase of this war has now started. I regret it will become worse over the next few weeks, but 9 May 2022 may be decisive. If Putin can demonstrate success, and hence cling on to power, he may, just may, be willing to consider bring the war to an end. If his army fails again and doesn’t succeed, then Putin’s future is far less certain.
Unfortunately, many people, both military and civilians, will be sacrificed before we know the outcome. This is the cost in blood that dictators, both Stalin and Putin, have caused and I doubt either has shed a single tear beyond what it means for them personally.
But let us again, as the war in Ukraine drifts from front page news to competing with other stories, reaffirm our commitment to supporting them as we look forward to our Liberation Day.
