Bird flu could become endemic after ‘unprecedented’ outbreak

The outbreak has been building up momentum in Channel Islands colonies in recent weeks, with bodies of sea birds washing up on local beaches.

Mr Chamberlain said it was hard to know how the outbreak would progress due to its unprecedented nature.

About 40 dead birds have been reported in Guernsey and around 20 in Alderney.

He added that multiple dead sea birds had been tested for avian influenza in the two islands.

‘A significant proportion of these have returned positive results,’ he said.

‘This established that sea birds within the Bailiwick were being exposed to and succumbing to avian influenza. Therefore, we now reasonably presume that dead sea birds are likely to have succumbed to avian influenza.

‘Having established the presence of avian influenza in sea birds, we have now focused our attention on testing bird species which feed on live or dead birds. This includes scavengers such as corvids, e.g. crows, ravens, magpies, and also some birds of prey. We have also started to test birds which have died unexpectedly in poultry flocks.’

So far, one backyard flock has tested positive in Alderney but no poultry tested from Guernsey have returned a positive result.

Should any poultry in Guernsey test positive, local animal health regulations would require similar action to that seen in Jersey. From yesterday an island prevention zone was set up covering Jersey in a bid to reduce the spread of bird flu.

Since 2005, avian influenza records in Europe have typically started in the autumn, reached a peak after the new year, and died out around Easter. This pattern continued in 2021 to 2022, but due to very high numbers of avian influenza outbreaks nearby in France, a prevention order was enacted in January 2022 requiring local poultry keepers to take additional measures to protect their flocks from wild birds.

This outbreak trailed off around Easter 2022 and the order was lifted.

But the latest outbreak is not behaving like previous ones.

‘This current outbreak of bird flu is atypical and entirely unprecedented, starting in the northern isles of Scotland in late May,’ Mr Chamberlain said.

‘It spread down the east coast of Scotland and England before jumping the Channel to northern France.’

He said it was impossible to say what would happen next.

‘Wild birds could be so widely infected that avian influenza persists all year around, i.e. the disease has become endemic,’ he said.

‘If this becomes the case, there will be a need for all poultry keepers to make changes to the way they keep their birds. More information and updates will be given at the appropriate time depending on how the situation develops.’