300 new residents a year to maintain our workforce

It could lead to a Guernsey population of 68,000 by 2050.

But it could be a struggle to attract that many people to the island.

And even if they do come, more housing would be needed, which could include green field developments and more dense housing, the review warns.

The policy letter does detail the proposed employment policy changes, which will allow employers to take on staff from across the world, rather than just being tied to the UK and the EU.

In the policy letter, the Home Affairs committee said Guernsey was facing an uphill challenge in having enough people in the workforce.

‘Guernsey’s productivity, if measured by GDP, is ahead of many comparable jurisdictions and also that of the United Kingdom,’ the committee said.

‘But global challenges mean that we must do all that we can to sustain that position. In addition, it is clear that more can be done to increase participation in our economy.’

The committee emphasised that the 300 figure was not a cap or a target.

‘It is an assumption based on analysis undertaken to evaluate what the Guernsey economy will need to remain competitive,’ they said.

‘It does not seek to list who the island needs, when it needs them, and which year that they need to arrive. What it does do is set out, at a high level, the framework in which government will need to consider its population in the next 10-30 years, not least to ensure appropriate planning can be taken in respect of housing and planning; the provision of public services; investment in infrastructure; and maintaining fiscal balance.’

Guernsey is also having to grapple with the UK’s post-Brexit policy, which is using a points system to bring in skilled immigrants and after five years they would qualify for indefinite leave to remain.

This has led the policy letter to recommend that Guernsey’s five-year medium-term permits be scrapped, as they could be used as a back door to the UK.

Instead Guernsey could have short-term permits – issued for one year, and renewed for up to three years – and long-term permits – which would be up to eight years and be a path to residency.

‘The removal of MTEPs [medium-term permits] from the regime will provide greater certainty to those looking to relocate to the island and the businesses for which they work by offering LTEP [long- term permits] holders a route to established residency and settlement,’ the committee said.

‘Provided they are working in a role that is aligned with the UK list (or where otherwise agreed for exceptional job types), an individual will be issued with an LTEP for eight years, after which they may apply for an established resident certificate to remain in the island permanently.’

The document also details some minor changes that could be made to the open market, but these have been drawn up to ensure they would not negatively impact the open or local market.