Housing on green fields to meet worker demand

The figure aims to keep Guernsey’s working age population stable and would be reviewed every five years.

But the letter recognises the impact the extra residents would have, with warnings that more housing would need to take place on green fields to meet demand.

‘It is noted that this level of net migration may lead to an increased impact on social rental housing, which could negatively impact the long social housing waiting lists and result in the requirement for more social housing,’ the Home Affairs committee states in the letter.

‘The review also recommends, given the requirement for general housing units set out above, that the work on market interventions to be undertaken by the committee for the Environment & Infrastructure includes specific reference to enabling the delivery of general housing units and stock as well as social and key worker housing units and stock.’

If 300 new people move to the island each year, it is estimated that 85 of every 100 people moving to Guernsey would be economically active.

However, this level of net migration would also cause the population to rise by around 5,000 people – to close to 68,000 by 2050.

‘This would have a significant impact on the island’s environment, housing stock, infrastructure requirements and living standards, which on balance may offset the benefits to the economy that a stable workforce would bring,’ the committee said in the report.

‘In consideration of these findings, the Steering Group remained cognisant of the clear tension between managing the decline in Guernsey’s workforce and maintaining the island as an attractive place to both live and relocate to.’

A review of the Island Development Plan – which dictates where housing can be built – is set to take place between 2023 and 2025, and a review of demand and housing land supply carried out.

‘The overall housing land supply, the pipeline supply of planning permissions, and the annual rate of completions of dwellings will need to be considered, alongside the new indicator, in the review of the IDP,’ the committee said.

‘The outcomes of this review could have a significant impact on the demand for housing and therefore housing land supply, so will need to be taken into account as part of IDP review.’

The Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment was carried out in 2014 and updated last year, looking at undeveloped sites and those in the main centres with development frameworks.

This demonstrates that the capacity in the existing main centres of the Bridge and St Peter Port was sufficient only to meet needs up to 2026, if 300 people came each year.

By 2040 the requirement for housing will exceed the maximum assessed capacity of the land supply identified in the assessment by more than 1,300 units.

‘It is therefore likely that there will be a substantial requirement to develop land, including likely green field sites, if the current model of building in terms of building heights, density, and off-street parking is continued,’ the committee said.

‘This may mean that there is a requirement to refocus in terms of building form and density in order to minimise

the impacts of substantial levels of new residential development.’