ESS president – ‘increase in households is a worrying trend’

He highlighted the increase of almost 1,000 households in the last five years as the real driver behind the island’s housing crisis.

‘It means that for the same population you need more homes, as on average there’s fewer people in each home,’ he said.

‘That change has been quite subtle, from 2.6 people to 2.5. That’s 0.1 fewer people in each house, but it means you need 1,000 extra homes before you even look at an increasing population.’

The latest census results revealed there were 25,244 households in Guernsey in March 2022, compared with 24,280 five years earlier. The proportion on one-adult households saw the largest increase in that time.

A number of factors have been used to explain the decline in household size, a phenomenon seen across the western world. These include the decline in birth rates, more single-parent families, and more people choosing to live alone.

Deputy Roffey said that the census was really just extra evidence that Guernsey needed to crack on with its house-building programme: ‘We have a surfeit of larger homes. The make-up of the community has changed and we see that at the GHA. We have people in three-bedroom homes who don’t need them, but nowhere for those people to go. We need to invest funds to bring new housebuilding. Although the GHA are self-funded through rents, they require grants.

If we don’t have the money to grant fund we will be in a pickle. If the States don’t catch up with the Tax Review my fear is we won’t have the cash needed to drive the affordable homes programme.’

Deputy Roffey was awaiting the review of the Island Development Plan to see how that might impact the housing programme.

‘I don’t want to see agricultural land go, but the Development & Planning Authority will have to release land for residential development and promote higher developments. Guernsey has always been very adverse to high-rise buildings in the past but the alternative is to build on other land,’ he said.

Although Deputy Roffey thought the pivotal conclusion from the census was the increase in households, a population increase of 400 people in a single year was a worrying trend, he said.

‘If the population grows by that much a year, in 10 years we will have 4,000 more people.

‘That will be difficult for our infrastructure to cope – our roads, electricity and water supply will be affected. We will have to really think about upgrading our infrastructure if that trend continues.’

Home Affairs has previously said the island should prepare for average growth of 300 people per year to maintain the workforce and ratios between the working population and those retired.