Roffey – current rates of immigration are unsustainable

The Guernsey Quarterly Population, Employment and Earnings Bulletin showed the islands population grew by 910 people over the course of 2023.

More than 3,000 people came to the island during 2023, while just over 2,000 left.

The States agreed in 2022 that an assumption of an annual net migration of 300-plus people was needed over 30 years to sustain the island’s workforce at 2020 levels, and it should plan on this basis.

But now over the past two years the island has seen a net migration figure of 1,830.

Deputy Roffey said the latest population increase had not come as a total surprise.

‘When we have job vacancies we see the population grow,’ he said.

‘The new laws have made that easier to happen. They are less restrictive and great for employment and the economy.

‘However there are implications for the broader infrastructure – that’s water, electricity, roads but particularly housing. There are undoubted economic advantages, but this can make it very hard to adapt.’

He added that he was not as relaxed about the figures as some of his fellow deputies appeared to be.

‘What if we keep increasing at this level for a few more years? And there is no reason to think that situation will change, we still have more skill shortages than we have people to fill them. I don’t have the answers but we need to understand the impacts of the increases.’

He said the other striking statistic in the report was the rapid growth of the over-85 age group.

This demographic saw an increase of 5.8%, or 107 people. That means there are now 1,900 people in the island in that age bracket.

‘That is the group that need the most in terms of social care and we are seeing that demand on States budgets,’ he said. ‘This is not putting blame on anyone – this just a fact.

‘They need support and that is not cost-free, so we need to adapt as a community to the reality of our changing demographics. Unfortunately that has tax implications.’