Demand for long-term care beds expected to rocket
DEMAND for long-term care beds is expected to increase by 50% over the next 15 years.
There are currently about 700 residential and nursing beds available, but Employment & Social Security has projected that approximately 1,050 will be needed by the end of the 2030s.
As it announced a range of proposed increases to accommodation and care costs, ESS claimed that no more time could be wasted before responding to the long-term care demands of the island’s rapidly ageing population.
‘Demand for bed-based long-term care will outstrip capacity from 2025,’ said ESS president Peter Roffey.
‘The projections show that a further 132 care beds will be required by 2030, which is equivalent to four average-sized care homes.
‘Sufficient time will be required to build, convert or expand buildings to meet the projected demand. Equally, the cost of delivering long-term care is expensive and increasing annually by more than inflation.’
The number of people in Guernsey aged 85 and over was projected to more than double in the next 30 years, from about 1,800 to nearly 4,300. One in three of them is expected to make a claim for funding from the island’s long-term care scheme, even without the States carrying out its agreed objective of extending it to cover care provided in an individual’s home.
Despite rising demand, the supply of beds has barely increased at all in recent years, which ESS has blamed on the economics of the care home sector, compounded by a global shortage of care workers and the high cost of living in the island.
It has calculated that the true cost of providing long-term care is up to £180 a week higher than the standard rate paid for a bed, and that without more funding the number of private homes would continue to dwindle.
‘There have been no new entrants to the private care home market since 2017 and three have closed in recent years with a further one moving into public ownership,’ said Deputy Roffey.
‘If support is not provided to the care home sector to reduce the risk of further care home closures and for it to meet the imminent projected demand, there is a real risk that Health & Social Care will have to meet any unmet demand, if it can.’
HSC was forced to take over St John’s Residential Home in 2022 and wants to avoid the need to rescue other homes as it battles significant financial pressure elsewhere across health care and social services.
ESS hopes that increasing private care homes’ income, through higher user charges and more generous payments from the island’s insurance scheme, will also reverse a sharp decline in the availability of ‘States-rate’ beds since the insurance scheme started 20 years ago.
‘Discussions with care homeowners and managers suggest to the committee that it is not an unreasonable expectation that increasing the standard rates payable will reduce the need for additional fees to be charged, which would be a positive outcome for care recipients,’ said Deputy Roffey.
