Recovery signs 'papering over major issues'

A declining and ageing population, employment levels falling in the key sectors of finance and retail and challenges in maintaining external links and connectivity are all indicators of an island under stress, said Chris Brock, chief executive of Island Analysis.

Mr Brock, pictured, based his comments on his company's extensive monitoring of more than 100 islands and research it has carried out into the 'life cycle' they experience.

'I am aware that there is a greater sense of optimism around and that some of the business surveys have highlighted greater levels of confidence,' he said.

'While that's encouraging – and I always hate coming across as a Jonah – the evidence we have from islands globally, including Guernsey and Jersey, is not so positive.'

Island Analysis, a locally-based research and benchmarking company specialising in islands globally, has used its extensive data to demonstrate that islands experience economic cycles similar to product ranges and has positioned 50 – including Guernsey and Jersey – in either building, fine-tuning, stress/crisis or reinvention phases.

His comments come in a detailed article in the latest issue of the Channel Islands magazine Business Brief and provide a different perspective on the issues facing Guernsey.