Guernsey Press

The end of the beginning?

THIS week there has been a slight relaxation of our lockdown – good news.

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Boris Johnson is back at No. 10 and the UK is looking to him to see how their lockdown will be lifted, while we will continue to look to the Civil Contingencies Authority for further relaxation of our lockdown.

This is good news but we need to be cautious, and I will not be surprised if somebody in authority quotes the words Churchill famously used after the victory at El Alamein, which are quite appropriate: ‘Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.’

Since the relaxation is good news, why my caution and what’s next?

This is such a fast-moving situation that I am not going to be foolhardy and try to foresee how the relaxation will progress – firstly, I do not have access to all of the Covid-19 data and anything I do write could easily be out of date by the time you read this. Instead I’m going to consider some of the issues and factors which will influence those decisions.

Covid-19 is in our population and, at least in the foreseeable future, it will remain in our population

This is a very sobering but realistic assumption. It is very likely that we will need to adjust and get used to living with the virus rather than hope that it will somehow disappear. The rather pessimistic conclusion has to be that we cannot expect to return to normal life until a vaccine is widely available, and realistically that is many months away.

For a variety of reasons there will be some people for whom the vaccine will not be effective, but if enough people are vaccinated the total effect is to protect the population and keep outbreaks to a minimum. I have read it being likened to measles or mumps – both of these are in our population but are controlled by mass vaccination.

To be effective we need more than 90% of the population to be vaccinated – that is a huge task, both in terms of producing the vaccine doses and the logistics of the actual vaccination process. The chance of that happening this side of Christmas has to be more optimistic than realistic.

Some people will have the Covid-19 virus without showing any symptoms but still be capable of infecting others

This is one of the major unknowns. One estimate I read is that about 80% of the UK population has not come into contact with the virus. Even if the accurate percentage is lower at 50-60% this is a major issue since infections will increase as more of us come into contact with the virus. I hope that my logic is wrong, but if the UK has suffered more than 20,000 deaths and 80% are yet to come into contact with the virus, then as their lockdown is eased and more people come into contact with the virus, there will be more deaths and the total could be significantly higher.

Since social distancing does reduce the level of transmission and therefore the number of people suffering from the virus it becomes very clear that some form of social distancing is going to be with us for some time yet. At least until an effective vaccine is developed and available to the whole population.

The lockdown is also having a negative effect on some people’s general wellbeing

The degree to which this affects people differs but the effects will increase the longer lockdown continues, which may well bring medium- and long-term issues for our health and social services and so is an important factor to be taken into account.

The elderly are at higher risk from the virus

Although people of all ages have sadly died, the risks are greater for the elderly. This may be one reason why Germany has a lower death rate than Italy; Germany’s initial outbreaks were amongst skiers who, on average, tend not to be elderly and so were less susceptible to the virus.

Here, on the other hand, the latest update was that all of the local deaths were amongst the elderly. This makes any decision about easing the lockdown for this section of society very difficult. This is also why I thought some of the comments by deputies that they were as vulnerable as a Churchill tank or they know 65-year-olds fitter than 50-year-olds to be particularly superficial. We need decisions based on evidence, not policy making by personal anecdote.

The lockdown is negatively affecting our economy

This is very much stating the obvious. Some sectors will continue to suffer significant disruption – pubs and clubs were the first to be locked down and it is possible that they may be among the last to be released. With world-wide travel restrictions, the tourist industry is decimated, and the degree to which such restrictions may be lifted during this season has to be very questionable. But perhaps in the longer term if air travel falls out of favour, or if some level of restriction continues, the islands may increase in popularity?

The finance industry has often been described as the ‘engine room’ of our economy, and while some areas are suffering, others seem to be coping. Perhaps it is possible that our economy is better placed than some economies to recover.

Only time will tell. But it remains important that businesses in our economy are supported so that the core business infrastructure is not lost. The government can do this through financial assistance, but we can also do this by buying locally where possible.

As Deputy St Pier indicated, from a health perspective the safest option would be for us all to continue in lockdown until a vaccine is developed, but, as he also noted, that is not a practical option. We do need to come out of lockdown at some time.

Clearly, it is not an on/off type of change – changes to the lockdown have to be a step at a time.

How much and how fast is the difficult question. No doubt the health and economic pressures and advice will be in opposition so it becomes a political decision of balancing the need to open the economy with minimising the health risks.

Very difficult decisions – and I for one do not envy the deputies who have to take them.