Q&A: What are the chances of a Labour ‘supermajority’?

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has warned that the Tories face a historic defeat at the polls on July 4.

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has appealed to voters not to hand Labour a “supermajority” when the country goes to the polls on July 4.

– Why are the Tories so worried?

After three weeks of campaigning, the polls look dire for Rishi Sunak with Labour continuing to hold a solid double-digit lead over their rivals.

Tony Blair in Downing Street surrounded by supporters waving Union Jacks following the 1997 general election — Tony Blair celebrates Labour’s 1997 election landslide (Rebecca Naden/PA)

And that was even before Nigel Farage announced he was returning as the leader of Reform UK and the backlash over Mr Sunak’s early departure from the D-Day 80th anniversary commemorations in Normandy.

– What is the Tory response?

The Conservatives fear Reform will take votes from them in constituencies where they are in a tight, two-way contest with Labour – particularly in those “red wall” seats they took from Labour in 2019 – potentially handing victory to their opponents.

At the same time, the Tories are under threat from the Liberal Democrats in their own “blue wall” heartlands in the South and West following a series of by-election victories for Sir Ed Davey’s party.

Nigel Farage speaking at a press conference in front of a Union Jack backdrop — The Tories fear votes for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party will hand seats to Labour (James Manning/PA)

One online Tory advert claims that a voting for Reform or the Lib Dems could give Labour 100 extra seats, resulting in the biggest majority in their history.

It depicts a scenario where the Conservatives are beaten into third place behind the Lib Dems, with just 57 seats, despite getting 19% of the vote and without Reform winning a single seat.

Mr Shapps said it would be “very bad news” for the country if Sir Keir was able to enter Downing Street with his power effectively “unchecked” by Parliament.

– What are the precedents?

The biggest landslide in UK political history came in 1924 when the Conservatives led by Stanley Baldwin won by 209 seats, ousting the minority Labour government of Ramsay MacDonald while the Liberals were annihilated.

Stanley Baldwin smoking a pipe — Stanley Baldwin led the Conservatives to a record 209 majority (PA)

In Canada in 1993, the ruling Progressive Conservatives (PCs) suffered what has been described as the worst ever defeat by a governing party in a Western democracy, losing all but two of their 156 seats.

Their demise was in part due to the rise of the insurgent Reform Party who swept up traditional conservative votes in the west of the country, supplanting the PCs as the main party of the right in parliament.

Their success has be cited by Mr Farage who has frequently expressed his ambition to conduct a “reverse takeover” of the Conservatives if they are heavily defeated on July 4.