Fact check: ‘National ULEZ’, mortgages and tax

This summary of claims from the campaign trail has been compiled by Full Fact, the UK’s largest fact checking charity working to find, expose and counter the harms of bad information, as part of the PA news agency’s Election Check 24.

Is Labour planning a ‘national ULEZ’?

In recent days, the Conservative party has circulated targeted adverts on Facebook suggesting that Labour is planning to introduce a “national ULEZ” this month if elected. The ads, which now appear to have been taken down, were shared with the caption: “Labour’s national ULEZ: coming to a road near you this July”. (We’ve also seen the term “national ULEZ” mentioned in election leaflets from the party.)

This is misleading. Labour has never said it will introduce a ‘national ULEZ’ in July, and there is no specific evidence that it plans to do so in the future.

The Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) is a ‘clean air zone’ in London where people are charged a daily rate for driving a vehicle that doesn’t meet certain emissions standards—a measure intended to tackle air pollution.

Labour has expressed support for clean air zones in the past—for example in a draft policy document last year. The Labour government in Wales is also developing a “road user charging framework”. And the main Labour manifesto does not explicitly rule out an expansion of road charging schemes—unlike the Conservative manifesto, which says it will “back drivers by stopping road pricing”.

But there’s also no mention in Labour’s manifesto of a ‘national ULEZ’ or other nationwide road charging scheme, and we’ve not seen any specific evidence of any such plans. Presenting assumptions or possible outcomes as facts that will happen is misleading.

Labour mortgages claim

We’ve seen several repeats of Labour’s misleading claim that the Conservatives’ plans would lead to a £4,800 increase in the average mortgage.

On Friday, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that “more Tory recklessness” will “cost families £4,800 more on their mortgages”.

Labour’s X account shared an image of a sign with a picture of the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s face and the words “Rishi’s mega mortgages” and “your mortgage up £4,800”. The sign is in the same style as a shop front set up by the party in south London, which also features the £4,800 figure.

As we’ve explained since it was first used by Labour last month, these claims are misleading, because £4,800 is a speculative figure presented as fact.

£4,800 seems to be Labour’s estimate of the average annual extra cost of a mortgage at the end of the next parliament. It is based on several uncertain assumptions, including that a future Conservative government would borrow a further £71 billion to cover spending commitments. Some of the detail of Labour’s workings also remains unclear.

Tax projections

On the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Mr Sunak said independent forecasts show the so-called “tax burden” under a Labour government would “rise to the highest level in our nation’s history”.

It’s true that analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) does suggest the tax burden would increase under Labour’s plans and by 2028/29 reach the highest level on record. But the same analysis projects that the tax burden would also increase under the Conservatives’ plans, though by slightly less than under Labour or current government plans. The IFS says the Conservative plans could mean the tax burden is at the third highest level on record by 2028/29.