Visa figures signal drop in net migration but asylum backlog rises

A sharp drop in the number of foreign care workers coming to the UK amid visa restrictions could pave the way for a fall in legal migration levels, figures suggest.

Sir Keir Starmer’s Government could meet its aim of cutting net migration, a raft of immigration statistics published on Thursday indicated, as Conservative predecessors claimed their measures were behind the decreasing immigration levels.

It comes as other figures showed the asylum backlog started to creep back up in the spring, after dropping by almost a third in a year, prompting warnings from campaigners that it would take time for the system in crisis to become fit for purpose.

Meanwhile separate figures suggested the number of migrants granted citizenship could have reached its highest level in more than 60 years.

Health and care worker visas granted to main applicants in the 12 months to June 2024 fell by more than a quarter (26%) on the previous year, to 89,095.

There was also a steep drop of 81% between April and June 2023, when 35,470 were granted, to just 6,564 in April to June 2024 – coinciding with the previous Conservative government’s ban on foreign care workers bringing loved ones to the UK on their visas.

The numbers prompted industry leaders to sound the alarm over the dramatic fall in staff coming to work in the UK, warning they are struggling to fill shifts at hospitals and care homes.

Overall, the number of visas issued to foreign workers, overseas students and people joining family in the UK dropped by 14% – something the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory said that, when combined with rising emigration, “should mean a decline in net migration over the coming year”.

A total of 1.23 million visas (1,234,817) were issued in the year to June to people arriving in the country for those reasons or through one of the Government’s settlement schemes.

This is down from 1,435,372 in the previous 12-month period.

Records dating back to 1962 suggest this is a new record high compared with the 23,146 granted in that year.

The Refugee Council meanwhile accused the last government of leaving the asylum system in “meltdown” which meant “productivity of Home Office decision makers in the months before the election was at its lowest since the height of the Covid pandemic”.

Home Office figures show a total of 118,882 people were waiting for an initial decision on an asylum application in the UK at the end of June 2024, down by 32% from 175,457 at the end of June 2023, which was the highest figure since current records began in 2010.

But the latest total is up slightly from the 118,329 waiting to be dealt with at the end of March this year, indicating a rise in the last three months of the 12-month period.

Think tanks said the backlog had “barely changed” while ministers were “distracted” by efforts to send migrants to Rwanda in a bid to deter Channel crossings and academics said asylum processing had stagnated.

A total of 67,978 people were granted refugee status or other leave to remain in the UK in the year to June, more than three times the 21,436 in the previous 12 months.

In the year to March, this number reached its highest level since records began in 1984, a record 68,564.

Seema Malhotra, minister for migration and citizenship, argued the figures showed the “chaos” the Tories had left behind as she insisted: “This Government will be different.

“We are getting a grip with a serious plan to end the chaos”, adding: “We can’t solve these problems overnight, but we have already started work to deliver an immigration and asylum system that is controlled, managed, and works for Britain.”

But shadow home secretary James Cleverly, who is running to be the leader of the Conservative Party, claimed the figures were proof that measures put in place when he was in office are taking effect.

“When I said I was going to cut migration, I meant it,” he said, adding: “The actions I took as home secretary are working.

“I reformed visas and cut net migration … that’s the inheritance I left Labour.”

Other data revealed almost 30,000 asylum seekers were still living in hotels across the UK as of the end of June.

But other figures, due to disclose the latest cost of the UK’s asylum system, were unexpectedly delayed with the Home Office saying the data was “not available for inclusion this quarter”, adding: “Work is ongoing to review the finance model used to calculate these costs and we will publish these in due course.”

Afghans were still the most common nationality making dangerous Channel crossings in the year to June, despite more being given sanctuary in the UK through legal means after the Taliban takeover of their home country.

The number of migrants arriving in the UK after crossing the Channel who were returned after being deemed to have no right to stay in the country remained low, at just 3% of the arrivals recorded between 2018 and June (3,788 out of 127,834).

Most of the returns occurred within the last year after a removals deal was struck with Albania, the Home Office said.

Earlier this week Home Secretary Yvette Cooper promised a “surge in enforcement and returns flights” to reach the highest rate of migrant removals since 2018 while announcing a plan to crackdown on organised immigration crime.