Fact check: Migrant channel crossings usually increase after July

During an appearance on the BBC’s Question Time on September 26, Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf answered a question about the Labour Government’s response to small boats carrying migrants across the English channel.

After referring to the cancellation of the plan to deport migrants to Rwanda, which he described as a deterrent, Mr Yusuf said: “In the 80 days since Keir Starmer has taken power and has been in Downing Street, compare that to the last 80 days of the Conservative government. The number of people crossing the channel illegally has grown by 60%.”

Evaluation

Official data recording small boat crossings shows an increase when comparing the last 80 days of Rishi Sunak’s government and the first 80 days of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.

Scrapping the Rwanda scheme may or may not have impacted on this – it is difficult to tell. However the number of people crossing always increases around this time of year, which is likely to be due to better weather.

The facts

The Home Office publishes daily data recording the number of irregular migrants arriving in the UK, including those detected on arrival and those found in the Channel who are then brought ashore.

The daily data covers January 1 2018 to the present day.

The last 80 days of Rishi Sunak’s government (April 15 to July 4) show 7,309 arrivals. The first 80 days after the election (July 5 to September 23) saw 11,591 arriving on small boats, an increase of 57%.

It cannot be established what this number would have been without the scrapping of the Rwanda scheme. But previous years show a similar long-term trend for the summer months to have higher numbers of crossings. In 2022, the Home Office noted a “seasonal effect” where crossings were “generally higher in warmer months”. Analysis in May 2024 similarly concluded that there were “peaks in warmer summer months”.

Last year, when the Rwanda Migration and Economic Development Partnership was under discussion, the period of April 15 to July 4 saw 6,534 arrivals – fewer than under the last days of Rishi Sunak’s government, when the scheme’s legislation received royal assent. From July 5 to September 23 2023, this jumped to 12,563 – an increase of 92% during a period when the scheme was being debated.

This seasonal trend has repeated every summer back to 2018, as far back as the records go, when four irregular migrants arrived between April 15 and July 4, compared with 17 in the following 80 days. August is usually the month with the highest number of crossings, as shown in the Home Office’s monthly tables – including the highest for any calendar month – 8,574 in 2022.

With this trend showing a rise in irregular migrants arriving in small boats, it would therefore be generally expected to rise over the days in question.

Links

Question Time – 2024: 26/09/2024 – BBC iPlayer (isolated clip, archived here)

Small boat activity in the English Channel – GOV.UK (archived)

Small boat arrivals – last 7 days – GOV.UK (archived)

Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats – time series (archived)

Irregular migration to the UK, year ending December 2022 – GOV.UK (archived)

Irregular migration to the UK, year ending March 2024 – GOV.UK (archived)

The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Act 2024 – GOV.UK (archived)

Irregular migration to the UK summary tables, year ending June 2024 (archived)