Decisions taken during Covid pandemic still weigh heavily on me, says Swann

Stormont’s former health minister Robin Swann has admitted that decisions he made during the Covid pandemic continue to “weigh heavily” upon him.

Mr Swann also told the UK Covid-19 Inquiry that he did not provide sufficient direction in preparing for a surge in the number of critical cases during the early months of 2020.

Module three of the inquiry is looking at the governmental and societal response to Covid-19 by assessing the impact of the pandemic on how health services were delivered.

During his evidence, the former minister, who is now an MP, was asked what lessons he had learnt from the pandemic.

“In regards to some of the questions that I raise myself about what could have been done, were those the right decisions, were they timely with regards to what we knew then compared to what we know now?”

Earlier, Mr Swann said that the coming threat from the pandemic became “real” to him and Executive colleagues after modelling figures in 2020 estimated Northern Ireland could be facing 4,000 hospital admissions a day.

The Stormont powersharing Executive had recently been restored at the time and Ulster Unionist Mr Swann had taken on the role of health minister.

Counsel to the inquiry Nick Scott showed Mr Swann the first Northern Ireland specific modelling for Covid, which was produced on March 20 2020.

The modelling indicated that without intervention, Northern Ireland could have been facing 32,000 cases a day with 4,000 daily hospitalisations.

Mr Swann said: “At that specific point in regard to the 32,000 daily new symptomatic cases (it) was a stark focus in regards to what Northern Ireland was actually going to be facing in regards to those numbers without any intervention.”

Mr Scott said: “Did it present a step change to what you were working towards?”

Mr Swann said: “I think it was at that point, in regard to the 32,000, the daily hospital admissions of 4,000 possibly per day, was really that point that made this whole thing real both to me and my Executive colleagues.”

Mr Scott said: “This is March 9, did it not feel real well before that point in terms of what was likely to happen in Northern Ireland?”

Mr Swann said: “It did feel real, but I think when you see a population of 1.9 million in Northern Ireland, where we could be facing 32,000 cases per day, 4,000 hospital admissions without behavioural intervention, that was the crux that made it real for us.”

The barrister asked if prior to the modelling there had been “sufficient pace of planning to ensure the health service could respond to the pandemic”.

Mr Swann said: “I don’t think that the surge plans in their totality were preparing for the numbers we were potentially going to see without the daily interventions.

Mr Scott said that 10 days after the modelling figures, the Department of Health published a summary plan to ensure there was sufficient capacity to meet increase in demand.

He asked the former minister why it did not include a surge plan for critical care cases.

Mr Swann said: “There was not one developed at that stage that I am aware of.”

Mr Scott said: “Did you look at this and say how are we going to scale that critical care? Do we have a plan in place?”

Mr Swann replied: “If that is not in that submission then I didn’t.”

Mr Scott said: “Do you think that is a question you should have asked?”

Mr Swann said: “On reflection, yes. I was newly into the position… what I know now is very different from what I knew then.”

The barrister said: “It is not a matter of how long you were in the role to assess whether there was a plan in place for you were going to scale up critical care.”

Mr Swann said: “It is that ability to be able to ask the right question at the right time. With hindsight, knowing what I know now, I would have asked that, I would have insisted on it.”

Mr Scott asked: “Do you think then, that whatever the reason, you weren’t providing a sufficient level of direction as the health minister, that you believed you probably should have provided?”

Mr Swann responded: “Yes.”