Swann says he did not provide sufficient direction at start of pandemic
Robin Swann told the UK Covid-19 Inquiry that the threat of the pandemic became ‘real’ to him when modelling figures on cases were produced.
Stormont’s former health minister Robin Swann has admitted he did not provide sufficient direction in preparing for a surge in the number of critical cases during the early months of the Covid pandemic.
Giving evidence to the UK Covid-19 Inquiry, Mr Swann said that the coming threat from the pandemic became “real” to him and Executive colleagues after modelling figures in 2020 estimated Northern Ireland could be facing 4,000 hospital admissions a day.
Module three of the inquiry is looking at the governmental and societal response to Covid-19 by assessing the impact of the pandemic on how health services were delivered.
The Stormont powersharing Executive had recently been restored at the time and Ulster Unionist Mr Swann had taken on the role as health minister.
Counsel to the inquiry, Nick Scott showed Mr Swann the first Northern Ireland specific modelling for Covid, which was produced on March 20 2020.
The modelling indicated that without intervention, Northern Ireland could have been facing 32,000 cases a day with 4,000 daily hospitalisations.
Mr Scott asked: “Did this present a dramatic change in terms of the numbers that would have to be dealt with?”
Mr Swann said: “At that specific point in regard to the 32,000 daily new symptomatic cases (it) was a stark focus in regards to what Northern Ireland was actually going to be facing in regards to those numbers without any intervention.”
Mr Scott said: “Did it present a step change to what you were working towards?”
Mr Swann said: “I think it was at that point, in regard to the 32,000, the daily hospital admissions of 4,000 possibly per day, was really that point that made this whole thing real both to me and my Executive colleagues.”
Mr Swann said: “It did feel real, but I think when you see a population of 1.9 million in Northern Ireland, where we could be facing 32,000 cases per day, 4,000 hospital admissions without behavioural intervention, that was the crux that made it real for us.”
The barrister asked if prior to the modelling there had been “sufficient pace of planning to ensure the health service could respond to the pandemic”.
Mr Swann said: “I don’t think that the surge plans in their totality were preparing for the numbers we were potentially going to see without the daily interventions.
“The average daily beds available in Northern Ireland were actually less than what was being expected as the Covid peak daily new hospital admissions. It would have crippled our system completely if we hadn’t taken those behavioural interventions that we did.”
Mr Scott said that 10 days after the modelling figures, the department of health published a summary plan to ensure there was sufficient capacity to meet increase in demand.
He asked the former minister why it did not include a surge plan for critical care cases.
Mr Swann said: “There was not one developed at that stage that I am aware of.”
Mr Scott said: “Did you look at this and say how are we going to scale that critical care? Do we have a plan in place?”
Mr Swann replied: “If that is not in that submission then I didn’t.”
Mr Scott said: “Do you think that is a question you should have asked?”
Mr Swann said: “On reflection, yes. I was newly into the position… what I know now is very different from what I knew then.”
The barrister said: “It is not a matter of how long you were in the role to assess whether there was a plan in place for you were going to scale up critical care.”
Mr Swann said: “It is that ability to be able to ask the right question at the right time. With hindsight, knowing what I know now, I would have asked that, I would have insisted on it.”
Mr Scott asked: “Do you think then, that whatever the reason, you weren’t providing a sufficient level of direction as the health minister, that you believed you probably should have provided?”
Mr Swann responded: “Yes.”
