More than one in four premature deaths in UK ‘will be due to cancer by 2050’

More than one in four premature deaths in the UK between now and 2050 will be due to cancer, according to a new report.

The study from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), warned that the “current trajectory of cancer costs is unsustainable” as it called for greater investment in early cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment.

The total annual workforce output in the UK is £6.5 billion lower than if there was no cancer, it said, adding that the workforce is cut by 170,000 full-time workers due to the disease.

Other research has shown that cancer deaths in the UK are growing, with projections they will rise from more than 176,000 in 2023-2025 to around 208,000 deaths in 2038-2040.

In the new study, OECD researchers said that, “despite advances, cancer remains a significant public health challenge in the UK” and is the leading cause of death.

It added: “One in four premature (before age 75) deaths (27%) will be due to cancer between 2023 and 2050.

The study warned that cancer costs are expected to grow in the future, and as the UK’s “population ages, this will lead to a 52% increase in per capita health spending on cancer between 2023 and 2050”.

Also driving up costs are people requiring cancer treatment for longer and living longer, while “higher treatment cost from new medicines and technologies could further increase the total cost”.

The report added: “As around 40% of cancer cases can be prevented by healthier lifestyles, scaling up action to tackle tobacco and harmful alcohol use, high body weight, unhealthy diets, lack of physical activity and air pollution could make a crucial contribution in curbing the growing burden of cancer.”

“If the United Kingdom were to improve cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment to achieve the best survival rates observed in the OECD and EU, this would prevent one in five premature cancer deaths, increase the population average life expectancy by six months, add the equivalent of 8,000 full-time workers and increase overall health expenditure by 1.3%,” the report said.

Dr Ian Walker, executive director of policy at Cancer Research UK, said: “This first-of-its-kind report brings into stark perspective the huge economic burden of cancer globally, as well as here in the UK – where we continue to lag behind similar countries on cancer survival.

“Our analysis shows that cancer cases are set to rise, increasing costs to our public services and the economy.

“By investing in research and building on world-leading prevention legislation like the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, the UK Government can help transform the lives of people affected by cancer and create a healthier and better-off society.”

It comes as a separate study from the University of Aberdeen said there is a “concerning rise” in the number of middle-aged adults dying in the UK that is not related to the Covid pandemic.

Dr Francisco Perez-Reche said the excess deaths are often “attributed to healthcare backlogs, mental health and other health problems associated with the pandemic”.

But the study found the rising trend in death rates among middle-aged adults actually began in 2012.

Researchers did not examine specific causes for the deaths but suggested job insecurity, the rising cost of living, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders and substance misuse may play a role.