Brexit much less damaging to British exports than claimed, says Hunt

Brexit had “much less impact on British exports to the EU” than previously thought, Conservative former chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said.

The senior Tory MP also warned ministers against choosing between closer ties with the US or Europe, as he gave his name to research which contests analysis of Brexit’s damaging impact on outward trade.

Centre-right think tank Policy Exchange claimed the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) modelling for how the vote to leave the EU had impacted British exports had been overstated.

In a foreword for the report, Mr Hunt – who voted remain in the Brexit referendum – said he believed “many claims about the impact of Brexit upon the UK’s economy were overly exaggerated”, but also said the same was true of the “more hyperbolic claims of some Brexiteers about its benefits”.

“Policy Exchange’s work in this area should be carefully scrutinised by the OBR when they next update their models.”

The think tank’s report said official analysis of Brexit’s impact had only taken into account the fall in the volume of exports, and not its value.

While the number of vehicle exports are down 28% compared with 2019, the value of exports has only decreased by 2% in the same period, the think tank claimed.

It also said there had been a failure to appreciate how the UK had under-performed in exporting to the EU compared with other economies, even when it was a member of the trade bloc.

And Policy Exchange warned that goods which were imported to the UK and then immediately exported again, so-called “re-exports”, had accounted for a large discrepancy in the falling volume of outward trade.

Mr Hunt also warned that those “who seek to relitigate Brexit are deeply mistaken”.

He said: “The half-decade of political instability that followed Brexit took its toll on governance and neither business, nor the population at large, would thank the Government for reopening these questions.

“Our priority must be to focus on strengthening the UK’s economic performance, both domestically and internationally.

“In this era of increasing geopolitical uncertainty, it is more important than ever that the UK keeps all of its allies close.

“Britain does not need to choose between the EU and the US on trade, but should seek to maintain positive and open relationships with both.”