Progress and priorities

‘PLANS are nothing, but planning is everything.’ So said Dwight D ‘Ike’ Eisenhower, 34th president of the United States and supreme commander of Allied forces in western Europe in the Second World War.

If anyone had the authority and experience to make such a statement, it was him.

I was reminded of this phrase when, at the last States meeting of 2021, I gave my first update to fellow deputies on the progress that had been made on the Assembly’s plan for this term – what we have called simply, the Government Work Plan, or GWP. The title reflects the approach taken. Let’s not waste time on finding a fancy title, let’s focus on getting things done.

The GWP was approved by the States in July last year after just over six months’ work. It was a major task distilling down hundreds of different workstreams, outstanding resolutions and legislation in such a short space of time. But it had to be done.

The States’ challenges in navigating a dramatic global context of Covid-19, Brexit and climate change are unprecedented. That is even before we consider the consequences of what is unfolding in Ukraine. There is much recovery work to be done but government resources are tight, so the plan by necessity concentrates on essential and ‘biggest-bang-for-the-buck’ actions.

Unlike previous States’ plans, it unites every government initiative – except for everyday, business-as-usual activities – into a single, joined-up plan of action divided into four priorities: responding to the Covid pandemic; managing the effects of Brexit; delivering recovery; and reshaping government.

However, it was known from the start that there were key areas needing immediate attention, such as addressing our housing issues, population management and immigration challenges and improving our digital infrastructure. So a ‘top 10’ of key actions were agreed.

What can I say about what has been achieved over the last six months? Well, when it comes to the ‘top 10’, quite a lot really.

The roll-out of fibre to the home has begun and people are already getting connected to the network.

Initiatives to achieve more affordable housing have started with land being purchased at the old Kenilworth Vinery site to enable building to begin relatively quickly.

Considerable work has been undertaken on proposals to amend the Children Law to support vulnerable children, building on the work undertaken in the previous term.

The Population and Immigration Policy Review Group has clicked into gear, has consulted with employers and is considering actively what our future approach should be post-Brexit and post-Covid.

Additional funding has been provided to Guernsey Finance to support our biggest economic driver as the global finance industry becomes ever more competitive.

A tourism product development strategy led by Economic Development is being developed across committees and with the industry.

And in March the States gets to decide on whether to establish a development agency in order to ensure a partnership is built between government, business and the community to take forward the regeneration of the eastern seaboard.

So, all good stuff. However, it is clear that, while the GWP has whittled away a lot of work that was floating about the States, there is still just far too much in it than can actually be done. Those who feel unhappy about progress in particular areas will say, ‘we need more resources’. That’s all very well, but there will never be enough resources to do everything we want.

Importantly, then, the GWP also recognises that there must be a trade-off. If new things need to be done, some existing things will have to be stopped. We don’t have endless money and, even if we did, we don’t have an infinite number of people and so must focus on what we need to do, not what we want to do.

And this brings me back to Ike. The plan can’t stand still. It has to evolve and, in my view, we need to be radical about it. We, as a community, and so through our Assembly, have to agree what the critical focus should be. Trying to be all things to everybody is just going to please nobody. We’ve made a good start but we need to go further. Since the GWP was approved last July, borders were opened, vaccination rates increased such as they are some of the highest in the world and emergency regulations have fallen away. We are at a point, at least for now, where our response to Covid might not be one of the top four priorities.

However, there are issues, right here and right now, that we need to address. Climate change, for instance. We’ve made a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 57% on 1990 levels by 2030 and to get to net-zero by 2050. We need to start delivering, otherwise, not only is it greenwash, but the impacts of global warming will become increasingly apparent. There are various strands in the GWP that deal with it but, as a mission critical issue, we should be demonstrating that our commitment is real and meaningful.

Another major issue that is coming to the fore and concerns me is income inequality. It has been growing since the financial crash of 2008, the pandemic has only made it worse and matters are unlikely to improve if we don’t do something about it as we enter an inflationary period with rising prices for the basic needs of food, light and heat.

As the gap grows, the impact on our community and the cost of public services grows. There is a strong correlation between income and health. The more you suffer from financial hardship the more likely you are to suffer poorer mental and physical health, live with illnesses longer and become less economically active. It is a vicious circle and the more people we have finding themselves in that position, the more pressure it puts on public services. To date focus has been on the symptoms, such as increasing the health and care budget and extending social security benefits, but not the cure, which requires solutions from across government.

Work has begun on skills and human capital development, but we must ensure that this work, as well as being connected to our approach on population, also supports our actions to close the inequality gap. We talk about the need for affordable housing, but surely we should be talking about houses that people can afford? We don’t really tackle a growing inequality problem by increasing social housing. Again, it just tackles the symptoms, not the cure.

We are reviewing our tax system to address our demographic changes and associated annual funding shortfall which it has been estimated will grow to £85m. We can’t ignore the issue as, like climate change, the longer we wait to act the more severe the repercussions for future generations. However, it is my firm view that we need to ensure the solution does not create greater inequality. That is why, before we decide anything, I believe it is important that we clearly understand the impact of various options on our community, as well as how and when we make any changes. We already have a tax system that is unfair. Reforming social security contributions would go some way to helping those on the lowest incomes, but then that will have to be paid for. What we can’t do is put a disproportionately greater burden on those in the middle – those who just about manage to get by – which will only serve to make matters worse. If ever there was a time for making evidence-based decisions, that time is now.

It is important that we look holistically to ensure that, not only do children have the best start in life, but that people are given the skills to maximise their capabilities and have control over their lives, have good employment opportunities, a healthy standard of living, a healthy environment and that illness prevention is supported.

Achieving this, through dealing with issues such as climate change and inequality, is the key to unlocking a wellbeing economy, where we are competitive internationally and where businesses want to set up and expand because as a government we have invested in our people, our environment and our infrastructure. In other words, where we think beyond economic growth as the only indicator of success.

These are my personal views and not necessarily shared by the committee I sit on or the wider States. I may well be in a minority of one. That’s fine, but what I am trying to say is that while the States has made great progress during a challenging time, we need to make some important strategic decisions on what we want for our island and ensure we only focus on those actions that align directly to them. That way we can really build on what has been achieved thus far and get to another level.

Of course, to quote another American military commander, Norman Schwarzkopf, ‘The truth of the matter is that you always know the right thing to do. It’s doing it that’s the hard part.’