Silver linings playbook

I’VE been away for Easter. Cairo and Sharm. Sharm was very quiet, no Russians apparently. I worried my mother with the explanation that, as there was a war to the north, a war to the east and a war to the south, the lack of visitors was understandable. Ok, I’m being a bit liberal with the points of the compass, but still sobering thoughts.

Last month, if you recall, I was a veritable Dr Doom, lamenting the long-term impact of the banking woes on our finance sector. Afterwards, I was forwarded an interesting research note from a reader, which provided the ‘maybe this banking crisis isn’t such a big deal’ perspective. It was very interesting, thank you Chris, but I haven’t changed my view – I still think the result is a significant negative shift in economic fundamentals. And as a result, further drag on growth of offshore finance going forward. But these are ‘underlying issues’ type factors, the sort whose impact is imperceptible in the short run but stack up in the long run. Easily shrugged off for now, if you’re that way inclined.

Indeed, pop pickers, if we were looking to shrug things off, we could find solace in the fact that while I was away Guernsey rose 12 places in the latest Global Financial Centres Index Survey to 59th and, importantly for our crack promotional team, one place ahead of Jersey.

Fifteen years ago, when I came to the island, Guernsey and Jersey used to vie for around 13th and 14th place in this survey. How times change. How robust the results are is anyone’s guess. But I’ve witnessed first-hand UK ministers cite London’s position in this survey as testament to its status. So, if it’s good enough for them… Plus, strategy works with a lag and I since I wrote the finance sector strategy in 2018 and the 2021 update, there’s got to be some reflected glory my way, right? That’s positive thinking, eh?

As I caught the mother of tummy bugs while away and I’ve had cramps for more than a week now, I’ve been finding it difficult to find reasons to be cheerful. Not even Dominicker camels (one for you, Ed.). But it’s important to stay positive so I’ll try. There’s only so much fun being totally cheerless every month. So let’s go. Positive stuff only.

So after two weeks away, what positives are people discussing? Well, we bought a boat. Another one. They’re still discussing that. And while no one’s sure what the emergency was, it all seems a bit more kosher than pretending a depreciating asset was somehow a plum investment for the Bailiwick Investment Fund. This emergency powers thing is just a helpful ruse to provide a little bit of executive power now and again. It’s not a secret, we all know that. And most of us, given a choice, don’t mind a bit more transport resilience. While we’re on the topic, how about a little more appreciation for Condor, a private sector firm on which we relied on totally during the pandemic. Perhaps a little round of applause for Condor and P&R tonight? 8pm after Corrie (that’s still broadcast, isn’t it?).

I’m getting goosebumps. This positive vibes things is uplifting, isn’t it? Can I think of anymore? How about Guernsey’s A&E? When I came here 15 years ago, I used to marvel at A&E. None of the UK experience of waiting for hours and fighting through the real-life cast of Shameless. No, all very civilised, quick and efficient. Five minutes. Nurse. Doctor. Diagnosis. Treatment. Super. Totally pleasurable experience. And it’s the same today. Marvellous. Thank you very much to the young man who diagnosed me on Saturday. And the young woman who gave me my injections. And the helpful staff on reception. So come on everyone. 8pm tonight please. Guernsey Together! Seems ancient history now, but you remember the sentiment.

Anything else? I’m on a roll. I asked my son for suggestions. This is his preferred list: global warming; how much Guernsey government is spending; how we can improve our electricity usage; cost of living and taxes; war in Ukraine; and fish depletion. We’re obviously steering clear of Arsenal, having dropped six points in nine, but I clearly forgot to give him the positivity memo.

Eclectic choice for a nine-year-old. I probably should broaden the list of topics Daddy talks about at dinner. It’s amazing what kids remember. I took him scuba diving for the first time and spent a lot of time bitching about the state of the coral and lack of fish. Sharm was the location of COP28 so I might well have been chuntering about that. The sad legacy is an empty conference centre and an eight-lane highway going nowhere. It’s difficult to see what commitments Egypt might have contributed to the net zero agenda (I could look it up) but I’m sure they’re missing them.

But come on silver lining. There must be one. Well, that’s quite a worthy list of concerns and, despite everything, war, cost-of-living, government spending, climate change is still clearly up there on the list of priorities. I guess, given everything else, it’s going to be difficult to keep it there, though, what with all our other spending priorities.

And there it is. The elephant in the room. The big topic of discussion on my return is the capital prioritisation debate. Silver lining that! Time was when the textbook public spending choice question was guns or butter. Now apparently it’s a school or a hospital. A sad state of affairs. Something has clearly gone very wrong when we can’t afford both. We’re supposed to be one of the richest societies on the planet.

Someone somewhere has screwed up big time. And let’s be fair, it’s wrong to point fingers at P&R – this really is a plague on all their houses situation and this has been a decade in the making. But my tuppence worth… £100m.+ for a sixth form centre? What are people smoking?

But having returned, what’s noticeable is there’s no mention of climate change or net zero. Where are the resources coming from for that? I once worked out we’d need to spend three-quarter of a billion pounds hitting net zero in this debate. That was a genuine back of the fag packet calculation – it’s the only type this PhD economist does.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m no climate change loon. I’m quite sceptical about the practicalities of a lot of the policy approaches. But it’s not going to be costless and we’re going to have to do something. This is one this topic can’t just fall off the agenda. Else it’s going to be on my son’s son’s list in 2043.

It’s good to see attempts at prioritisation, but we’re still taking a bookkeeping approach to spending. We need to change the way we look at capital expenditure before we can afford none of it.

So that’s my rainbow of positivity for April 2023. Didn’t quite keep it going for the full 1,200 words. But you can’t have everything. My wife suggested weaving in the coronation this month. But I couldn’t manage it. God save the King!