Energy Policy becomes Plan - and holds stark warnings

THE Energy Policy is dead, long live the Energy Plan.

It is more than two or so years since the States debated, and noted, its then new energy policy.

It set in train several work streams, including investigating stricter carbon targets.

Now the Policy Council's Energy Policy Group has come up with a replacement plan. In some places it is watered down but it comes with some stark warnings about future supplies.

Consultation began last week - and a States debate will follow.

At the moment the plan stands as a more concise version of what went before. There is little update on the work to date or an easy way to compare the two - perhaps that will follow in the full States report.

Dozens of lines of investigation were set in train by the policy, not all headline grabbing but including things like offsetting through reforestation projects elsewhere, exempting income derived from micro-generation from income tax and ensuring at least 10% of the energy in all new builds comes from renewable resources by 2012.

No doubt these are all rumbling on somewhere.

The new plan sets out high-level direction and a few targets - the detail will follow.

'This Energy Plan contains a set of high-level principles and aims covering all forms of energy use. These principles and aims are believed to be realistic and achievable in current circumstances but adaptable to meet changing circumstances, particularly in global energy markets and local public attitudes to environmental issues,' it states.

Sadly for the green fringe, under the plan's direction the island will not be setting the pace in the race to tackle climate change.

Guernsey will watch and learn, but not be at the edge of innovation - either a shrewd move given the island's size and finances, or a wasted opportunity for exactly the same reasons.

For those energy companies that have been asking for clearer direction now, there will be disappointment.

Take Guernsey Electricity.

It has waited since the policy was debated for a clear decision on dropping the provision that it has to take its power from the cheapest source - something which has in recent years led to more power being produced on island and with it CO2 levels jumping higher.

Does it get it?

No, it gets another review.

Since the policy went through, the States has been investigating setting a carbon reduction target of 30% on 1990 levels by 2020 - a figure largely based on the UK's commitment at the time.

The plan wants to keep this goal, but recognises the false impression that the cable link with France has created in the current trend lines.

'A sounder and more realistic conclusion from the evidence is that, in the absence of further technological changes and direct action by the States, Guernsey is unlikely to achieve a 30% reduction in carbon emissions from 1990 levels by 2020.'

So something will have to be done - at the moment, it is just not clear what.

The plan has dropped the requirement for a commitment to producing 20% of power from renewable resources locally - driven by the realisation that tidal power on a commercial scale remains at least five to 10 years away.

There are hints here and there at controversial and expensive choices.

Shifting a focus towards dissuading people from buying new cars through financial measures is one such line.

High energy-efficiency standards in new builds will need a public acceptance that this will mean very different-looking homes.

A new direct cable link to France would overcome the weakness inherent in the current arrangement with just one cable to Jersey - if it fails, it could take six months or more to fix.

What the plan does is paint a bleak picture of the precarious nature of energy supplies in Guernsey.

Guernsey Gas relies on specialists to load, transport and offload LPG.

'It is believed that there are very few carriers available who can deliver the small volumes of LPG (propane and butane) associated with Guernsey. When this is combined with the requirements and restrictions of St Sampson's Harbour, it can be seen that the availability of suitable vessels is further limited. Security of supply in terms of the supply chain is therefore a significant risk for all importers of fuel through St Sampson's Harbour.'

The report states that to allow gas to remain a sustainable fuel on the island, the importation of natural gas via a pipeline or as liquid natural gas would need to be considered.

Oil imports are also on something of a knife-edge.

Rubis and Total import oil into Guernsey - but using States-owned tankers that have a 10-year life expectancy, according to the report.

There are only a handful of tankers that can use St Sampson's Harbour because it dries out, so a deep-water berth to take larger vessels is on the horizon.

'Currently both oil importers rely on one shipping company, which is very high risk. For example, should refineries reject the vessels and/or the operator for any safety-related reason, the island would be left in a critical supply situation almost overnight.'

Since the policy was debated in 2008, a Renewable Energy Commission has been established to work on the potential for offshore and onshore macro wind generation and tidal power.

A renewable energy law, still awaiting the UK seal of approval, will pave the way for the renewable energy industry to take hold once it is suitably developed.

All steps along the road.

The plan sets out a list of objectives and actions to achieve them that are subject to funding approval.

The commitments are contained in the areas over which the States has direct control - setting targets for reducing government energy consumption - and progress would be published if this is accepted.

But many of the actions are couched in language that gives wriggle room - 'we will consider' and 'we will encourage' are the favourites.

There is a wide-ranging study outlined at the end that will provide the evidence for firmer action to moving to a very different future.

It would review the hydrocarbon import supply chain to discover the viability of a new import structure.

'The result should indicate whether maintaining current energy diversity is affordable into the future and whether we need to assess these markets and explore alternatives. This should be combined with the concerns about the use of carbon-based fuels and will affect all suppliers.'

Only once this study is finished will the States have the firm evidence to determine a major slice of Guernsey's energy future.

nÊConsultation ends on Friday 9 September.