Positive signs but reasons to be cautious

As members rub their hands about what to do with the £22.1m. surplus from 2017, they would be wise to remember that not everything that has led to this position is sustainable.

Policy & Resources paints a general picture of both a strengthening economy and greater control of government spending.

Delve a little deeper, though, and you find, for example, that better than budgeted income tax receipts include both a one-off bumper payment and returns seeping through from the previous year that will not be repeated.

Document duty receipts were up £4.3m., but just two exceptional transactions generated £3.4m. of that. Income is also being helped by very strong investment performance.

On the savings side, we already know, for instance, that Education, Sport & Culture made a series of one-off cuts to try to hit its target, but even then was way off. Collectively committees underspent their budgets by £5.4m., but there remain areas of concern. For example, a big help in keeping a lid on revenue spending was suspending a £4.7m. grant to the health service fund for a year.

This States still has a noticeable problem in delivering the capital programme too. While it is putting aside plenty, by the end of 2017 there was £240.2m. in that pot, it is not leading to spades in the ground – just £8.2m. was spent on infrastructure.

The Assembly needs to focus on delivery while islanders watch what members decide to do with the surplus. Options include some welcome relief for the taxpayer with increases in personal tax allowances, upping spending on economic development or transformation of public services, or topping up the long-term reserve that was decimated post zero-10.

The long-term aim is to bring that emergency fund up to 100% of general revenue income – it currently stands a long way short at 39%.

So there is plenty of work to do as well as key decisions to be made.

The 2019 Budget promises to be interesting.