Population: a tale of two islands
BY 2065, at current projections, Jersey’s population will grow to 166,000. In the same half-century Guernsey’s is expected to fall to 59,000.
For those who have always considered Jersey to be just a bit larger than this island it is quite a turnaround.
As this millennium started, the difference between the islands was significant, but not huge. Jersey’s 2001 census showed it had a population of 87,000; Guernsey’s was 59,000.
For Jersey’s population to be almost triple Guernsey’s within many people’s lifetime would be an astonishing period of growth.
Or, depending on your point of view, an astonishing period of stagnation.
For which island is to be envied? The one having to build scores of high rise blocks to cope with a population explosion or the one whose census in 2065 could show levels last seen in the late 1980s?
Policy & Resources president Gavin St Pier has concerns about the long-term challenges of Guernsey’s lack of growth as the number of people paying taxes to support health services etc falls.
The new data should help us, he says, as we make crucial policy decisions in the coming years.
The implication is that we are in control of the tap and can turn it off and on.
The evidence of the last few years, however, shows that it is not so easy. There are many factors at work here, including the economy, fertility rates and the number of women of child-bearing age.
The post-2008 global recession and Brexit hit Guernsey hard and, for a time, population was falling year on year.
If another long-term economic downturn were to coincide with a drop in fertility rates the population projections could get significantly worse (as low as 40,000 by 2065).
If, however, times are good, immigration is strong and fertility rates improve, the other extreme sees Guernsey’s population rocket to 80,000.
That is a huge variance and the States has to be cautious how hard it tips the scales.
How do we get more young workers in without gumming up healthcare, benefits, roads and schooling in the long-term?
Deputies need to have a clear vision about what represents the Goldilocks’ balance between Jersey’s growth spurt and our demographic decline.