Heathrow subsidy risks costly return
THERE were some dire predictions around in 1997 when Air UK announced it was selling its Heathrow slots, not least from this newspaper.
The island would become a backwater if it went ahead. The economy would suffer high unemployment, cuts to public services and plummeting house prices.
The fear factor generated 7,500 letters from islanders, which the Guernsey Press duly delivered to the offices of Transport Minister Glenda Jackson as part of its Hang on to Heathrow campaign.
Such gloom and doom came to seem overblown as subsequent decades passed, but at the time there was a definite whiff of panic around.
Just as the island of 20 years ago was in need of cooler heads, the news this week that Flybe is to reopen the Heathrow link should be viewed with some sang-froid.
Losing the Heathrow link in the late-90s did not cripple the island. And nor will a once-a-day service on a 78-seat turboprop operated by a struggling airline herald a return to the glory days.
That is not to say the service is not welcome, just that its benefits should be kept in perspective.
That means a sober evaluation of the service as balanced against its high public subsidy.
After some initial ‘commercially confidential’ reluctance, Economic Development yesterday admitted that it is spending £825,000 to get the service off the ground.
Whether that subsidy will continue to its full-year cost of £1.4m. is not clear.
What is clear is that the island is spending heavily on each of those 78 seats. Even at maximum capacity between the end of March and November islanders will be contributing at least £27 for every passenger. Every empty seat increases that figure.
It is a substantial sum with an unknown return. Will the service invigorate the business sector and help international deal makers fly in and out with ease or will it be used by islanders keen to start their global travels at the Heathrow hub?
How many of those passengers would have been flying anyway via Gatwick?
For if new business is not generated by this route each pound of the subsidy will be matched by a fall in Aurigny earnings and even more cost to the island taxpayer.