Dividend must start to pay out
IN TERMS of personnel, the island’s civil service is about to undergo huge change.
Of the 1,600 civil servants currently employed, a quarter could retire within 18 months.
Within seven years those 400 staff may be joined on the beaches by another 400 States employees.
That is thousands of years of experience potentially lost as early as 2026.
It is a huge challenge for the States chief executive and his new-look senior team.
Not only must the organisation cope with a massive exodus of knowledge and talent but it must do so while undergoing the most significant transformation in its modern history.
On top of a radical restructure of the senior posts and reporting lines, the civil service has committed to transforming its technology and embracing the efficiencies of a digital future.
Given the imminent staff losses, the service has no option other than to change. Recruiting 800 staff to take the place of retirees would be both difficult and foolhardy.
Instead this must be seen as an opportunity to streamline the service. The departure of so many long-serving employees in such a short period of time gives the States freedom to take radical action and create a civil service fit for the 21st century.
It will not be easy. We are four years into the 10-year Service Guernsey plan yet are still putting in place a leadership structure.
As yet, the number of employees is stubbornly high. In basic headcount the number of public sector workers increased from 5,319 at the end of 2017 to 5,332 a year later.
The pay bill for those staff is also heading in the wrong direction: up from £221m. in 2017 to £229m. a year later.
Today we learn that the chief executive expects that trend to continue. Public spending is likely to go up in 2020.
At some point very soon the best-laid plans are going to have to start arriving on the bottom line. The £26m. annual reform dividend, helped by the loss of at least 200 civil servant posts, is a vital part of medium term budgeting.
Without it, the island will quickly return to the dark days of the black hole and an unsustainable budget deficit.