It’s more than sea water that divides us

Take income and expenditure. The former is forecast in Jersey to top £1bn by 2023. If all goes well, the latter will be ‘just’ £924m. leaving, after depreciation, an operating surplus of £23m.

By comparison, Guernsey’s income is estimated to reach £421m. by 2021, the end of its own medium term plan. An extra two years will not close that gap.

But then it does not need to – if States of Guernsey expenditure can be held in check.

If all goes well in this island, the underlying expenditure will be £351m., leaving a healthy £76m. surplus before capital appropriation.

If all goes well. Both islands have much work to do to make those sums add up.

For its part, Jersey is embarking on an efficiency drive similar to some of the cost-cutting work done by Guernsey over the last decade.

The Government of Jersey has promised to find £100m. in savings over the next four years.

However, as this island’s Financial Transformation Programme showed, identifying savings and bringing them home is easier said than done.

Jersey is only belatedly waking up to the notion that it can only spend what it earns.

The Government of Ministers (as opposed to the States Assembly of assorted senators, deputies and constables) now has a strong grip on both taxation and expenditure.

Guernsey’s Chief Minister can only watch on as his opposite number uses genuine authority to exert control.

Eye-catching ideas include a £349m. capital expenditure programme, GST on imports worth more than £135, a £10m. affordable housing scheme and a climate change emergency fund.

However, the boldness of Jersey’s four-year plan is drawn from necessity.

The Government Plan is an attempt to get a grip on an economy that has been flying too close to the sun. While Guernsey has plodded along, dutifully watching the pennies, Jersey has been living high on the hog.

The next few years will show how easy it is to come back to earth.