Heading into the great unknown

It comes at a time when what is needed is clear, consistent and strong leadership, but there is an election that could lead to just the opposite.

When we wake up tomorrow the UK will have officially left Europe, but that in itself is not the shift we need to worry about, what comes next is.

Everything has changed, yet in many ways nothing has changed, yet.

Brexit day marks the end of one journey but the beginning of another which could have serious ramifications for the Bailiwick as trade deals and the ongoing relationship with Europe is thrashed out during the transition period.

There are many unknowns. With a UK cabinet reshuffle on the way, what continuity will we have to make sure our voice is heard around the negotiating tables when necessary and avoid unintended consequences unravelling our position?

It is imperative we do not suffer adverse impacts from talks over the services industry or fishing rights, for example.

One of the problems Guernsey faces is caused by its own election cycle. While there will be continuity in the officials dealing with this issue, that is far from guaranteed at a political level.

An island-wide election in June will inevitably shake up the States, which in turn will impact on who is left at a senior political level to continue the talks with the UK and Europe. There is a danger that the island becomes too inwardly focused just at a time when it needs to be acutely aware of what is happening around it.

Complacency over what has already been established would be foolish and dangerous, but domestically the conversation can quickly become single issue-based and our constitutional relationship and position will struggle to strike home in the public consciousness as much as education, for example.

New administrations are notoriously slow in establishing themselves, their voice and their position – but there will be no honeymoon period on international affairs this time around.