Data key to avoid skewing the curve

But it has quickly entered the lexicon as we buy into the States’ desires for us all to hunker down and keep our distance to help fight the deadly threat of Covid-19.

We should be thankful that the data underpinning the decision making here is much more robust and in turn realistic than in the UK - as emphasised at the last press conference of the week.

That is important as the weeks of lockdown pass - it will also allow much more sophisticated and reliable decision making, perhaps allowing a rolling wave of lifting and tightening of restrictions in response to the virus’ spread in the community, or even targeting different groups.

While the arguments are loud and clear that our main way of fighting the virus at this stage with no vaccine is to accept unprecedented restrictions on our lives, that is only tenable if the data on community spread is reliable.

In Guernsey it is becoming better and better as on-island testing builds an evidence base beyond those with a travel history or in hospital.

Public health will be getting a better picture of the balance between the care home, travel and linked clusters and more genuine community spread which larger countries simply do not have.

The UK is not only underreporting coronavirus cases because of the limits on who is being tested, the death data is also underreporting daily numbers which subsequently rise in future weeks, not so much flattening the curve as skewing it.

The testing regime there has rightly come under fire for being far too narrow.

We have the benefit of size, simplicity for now of the decision making structure and a health service working as one, not competing for resources as is seen elsewhere.

There may well be bleak days ahead, some decisions will turn out to be wrong, but at least they should be made with the best of intentions based on credible evidence.