Imagining the future not easy, but is needed

Amid the Covid-19 emergency, it might seem hard to answer such questions. The Wisdom of Solomon could come in handy. That, or a crystal ball. But answer them we must try.

Right now, the hope is of a V-shaped recovery. In other words, a short sharp economic shock from the virus and then speedy recovery. But with borrowing of up to £500m. proposed by Policy & Resources to mitigate the current crisis and use as fire-power to boost the economy, it is only right to take a look over the horizon.

In an elegant turn of phrase, the Scrutiny Management Committee has said that the proposed spending must include an attempt to ‘re-imagine the future economy’ rather than basing spending on returning to the economy as it existed previously.

It’s an important point to make. Why? Because the future of individuals, companies and the island itself depends on it. Critical decisions in the coming days and weeks – including on spending and borrowing – will leave us counting the cost in the years and decades ahead.

Business leaders have given their broad support for the borrowing, in itself an important contribution to the debate. Investment in infrastructure is high up their list of priorities for example. With many of us home working and relying on broadband, others will see further upgrades to the island’s digital capabilities as key to unlocking growth. Could tourism also be a growth market in a world where long-haul travel may no longer hold the same allure as it once did?

The goal must be to plant acorns that grow into mighty economic oak trees with broad branches to support the island. Big, bold decision-making could pay dividends but may mean being ready for some failures in the pursuit of overall economic success. The greatest danger is that we end up with a herd of white elephants trampling all over our public finances and pet projects growing into unwieldy beasts.

A sensible way forward will be taking the same evidence-based approach to the island’s economy as has been taken with its public health. None of this is easy, especially given the urgency, but it matters because it will be our legacy for future generations.